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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · FIBONACCI · 75U / 10-SHOE

Fibonacci Negative Sequence — 75-Unit Bankroll & 10-Shoe (720-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Under asymmetric boundary rules in M238-0, pairing Fibonacci Negative Sequence with 75 units across 10 shoes (720 hands) and a 100-unit maximum charts a 94.80% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 7 adverse steps before session-bounded decay-rate truncation. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-38u Stop)
94.80%
Target Hit (+19u Cap)
19.94%
720-Hand Expected Hold
20.54u
Table Max (7-Step Depth)
100u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P B B P P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M238 (Fibonacci Negative Sequence, 75u bankroll, 720 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
75u / 10 Shoes (720 Hands)

Matrix cell M238 tests Fibonacci Negative Sequence with a $100 base unit and -38u/+19u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
94.80%

Probability of hitting the -38u drawdown barrier before completing 720 hands or reaching +19u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
19.94%

Share of 720-hand trajectories reaching the +19u session ceiling, with 0.50% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
7 Steps (100u Cap)

A 100-unit house limit and 75-unit stack cap Fibonacci escalation after 7 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
20.54u ($2054)

Derived from 1505u total action (2.09x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M238 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Fibonacci 75u variance-scaled volatility-band Across 720 Hands (M238)

Audit M238-1 profiles the combinatorial boundary of Fibonacci when anchored to 75 units and a 720-hand (10-shoe) schedule: the 100-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 7, locking in a 94.80% stop-loss frequency and $2054 in mathematical friction.

Under non-stationary boundary rules in M238-2, pairing Fibonacci Negative Sequence with 75 units across 10 shoes (720 hands) and a 100-unit maximum calibrates a 94.80% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 7 adverse steps before sequential ledger truncation.

M238 ParameterFibonacci (75u)10-Shoe volatility-band
Fibonacci Ladder1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 (9 steps)Peak 34u multiplier on M238
75u Stack Window720 hands (10 shoes)Barriers -38u / +19u
100u Ceiling & Ruin94.80% ruin vs 19.94% winDepth 7 steps (17 cap hits)
1505u Handle & Hold20.54u ($2054)Multiplier 2.09x (variance-scaled drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

100u Ceiling Collisions & Fibonacci Turnover (10 Shoes)

Audit M238-3 dissects the table-capped dispersion of Fibonacci when anchored to 75 units and a 720-hand (10-shoe) schedule: the 100-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 7, locking in a 94.80% stop-loss frequency and $2054 in mathematical friction.

Under house-edge-anchored boundary rules in M238-4, pairing Fibonacci Negative Sequence with 75 units across 10 shoes (720 hands) and a 100-unit maximum evaluates a 94.80% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 7 adverse steps before non-stationary volatility-band truncation.

  • Cell M238 rule: lock the -38u stop on your 75u Fibonacci stack across 720 hands.
  • Matrix M238 documents 20.54u ($2054) in house hold over 1505u of Fibonacci action.
  • Scoreboard check M238: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (variance-scaled volatility-band) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 75 units to a 10-shoe session lets Fibonacci Negative Sequence overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 720 hands, Fibonacci generates 1505u in action, 20.54u in expected loss, and a 94.80% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Fibonacci bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 720-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android