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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · FIBONACCI · 40U / 1-SHOE

Fibonacci Negative Sequence — 40-Unit Bankroll & 1-Shoe (72-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Under absorbing-barrier boundary rules in M231-0, pairing Fibonacci Negative Sequence with 40 units across 1 shoes (72 hands) and a 40-unit maximum evaluates a 28.11% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 6 adverse steps before variance-scaled drawdown-slope truncation. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-20u Stop)
28.11%
Target Hit (+10u Cap)
37.80%
72-Hand Expected Hold
1.56u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
40u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B P B B P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = =
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M231 (Fibonacci Negative Sequence, 40u bankroll, 72 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
40u / 1 Shoes (72 Hands)

Matrix cell M231 tests Fibonacci Negative Sequence with a $25 base unit and -20u/+10u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
28.11%

Probability of hitting the -20u drawdown barrier before completing 72 hands or reaching +10u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
37.80%

Share of 72-hand trajectories reaching the +10u session ceiling, with 34.09% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (40u Cap)

A 40-unit house limit and 40-unit stack cap Fibonacci escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
1.56u ($39)

Derived from 114u total action (1.58x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M231 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Fibonacci 40u stochastic footprint Across 72 Hands (M231)

Audit M231-1 audits the bankroll-constrained dispersion of Fibonacci when anchored to 40 units and a 72-hand (1-shoe) schedule: the 40-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 6, locking in a 28.11% stop-loss frequency and $39 in mathematical friction.

Under capital-bounded boundary rules in M231-2, pairing Fibonacci Negative Sequence with 40 units across 1 shoes (72 hands) and a 40-unit maximum tracks a 28.11% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 6 adverse steps before drawdown-weighted capital-runway truncation.

M231 ParameterFibonacci (40u)1-Shoe footprint
Fibonacci Ladder1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 (9 steps)Peak 34u multiplier on M231
40u Stack Window72 hands (1 shoes)Barriers -20u / +10u
40u Ceiling & Ruin28.11% ruin vs 37.80% winDepth 6 steps (4 cap hits)
114u Handle & Hold1.56u ($39)Multiplier 1.58x (stochastic drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

40u Ceiling Collisions & Fibonacci Turnover (1 Shoes)

Audit M231-3 measures the discrete-time distribution of Fibonacci when anchored to 40 units and a 72-hand (1-shoe) schedule: the 40-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 6, locking in a 28.11% stop-loss frequency and $39 in mathematical friction.

Under commission-adjusted boundary rules in M231-4, pairing Fibonacci Negative Sequence with 40 units across 1 shoes (72 hands) and a 40-unit maximum maps a 28.11% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 6 adverse steps before table-capped envelope truncation.

  • Cell M231 rule: lock the -20u stop on your 40u Fibonacci stack across 72 hands.
  • Matrix M231 measures 1.56u ($39) in house hold over 114u of Fibonacci action.
  • Scoreboard check M231: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (stochastic footprint) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 40 units to a 1-shoe session lets Fibonacci Negative Sequence overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 72 hands, Fibonacci generates 114u in action, 1.56u in expected loss, and a 28.11% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Fibonacci bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 72-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android