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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · FIBONACCI · 300U / 3-SHOE

Fibonacci Negative Sequence — 300-Unit Bankroll & 3-Shoe (216-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Case M247-0 measures the combinatorial Fibonacci Negative Sequence (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) across a 300-unit bankroll and a 216-hand (3-shoe) window, where a 60-unit table ceiling and 150-unit stop-loss produce a 12.87% ruin rate while tracks an average stake ledger of 3.23x and 9.53u ($476) in theoretical house-edge toll. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-150u Stop)
12.87%
Target Hit (+75u Cap)
42.47%
216-Hand Expected Hold
9.53u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
60u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B B B P P P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M247 (Fibonacci Negative Sequence, 300u bankroll, 216 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
300u / 3 Shoes (216 Hands)

Matrix cell M247 tests Fibonacci Negative Sequence with a $50 base unit and -150u/+75u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
12.87%

Probability of hitting the -150u drawdown barrier before completing 216 hands or reaching +75u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
42.47%

Share of 216-hand trajectories reaching the +75u session ceiling, with 44.66% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (60u Cap)

A 60-unit house limit and 300-unit stack cap Fibonacci escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
9.53u ($476)

Derived from 698u total action (3.23x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M247 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Fibonacci 300u capital-bounded envelope Across 216 Hands (M247)

In non-stationary benchmark M247-1, running Fibonacci across 216 deals with 300 units and a 60-unit maximum wager maps 698u of total handle, 9.53u in commission-weighted drift, and a 12.87% probability of exhausting the 150-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M247-2 documents the table-capped Fibonacci Negative Sequence (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) across a 300-unit bankroll and a 216-hand (3-shoe) window, where a 60-unit table ceiling and 150-unit stop-loss produce a 12.87% ruin rate while tabulates an average stake excursion of 3.23x and 9.53u ($476) in theoretical house-edge toll.

M247 ParameterFibonacci (300u)3-Shoe envelope
Fibonacci Ladder1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 (9 steps)Peak 34u multiplier on M247
300u Stack Window216 hands (3 shoes)Barriers -150u / +75u
60u Ceiling & Ruin12.87% ruin vs 42.47% winDepth 6 steps (9 cap hits)
698u Handle & Hold9.53u ($476)Multiplier 3.23x (capital-bounded drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

60u Ceiling Collisions & Fibonacci Turnover (3 Shoes)

In house-edge-anchored benchmark M247-3, running Fibonacci across 216 deals with 300 units and a 60-unit maximum wager benchmarks 698u of total handle, 9.53u in commission-weighted drift, and a 12.87% probability of exhausting the 150-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M247-4 models the stochastic Fibonacci Negative Sequence (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) across a 300-unit bankroll and a 216-hand (3-shoe) window, where a 60-unit table ceiling and 150-unit stop-loss produce a 12.87% ruin rate while measures an average stake turnover of 3.23x and 9.53u ($476) in theoretical house-edge toll.

  • Cell M247 rule: lock the -150u stop on your 300u Fibonacci stack across 216 hands.
  • Matrix M247 verifies 9.53u ($476) in house hold over 698u of Fibonacci action.
  • Scoreboard check M247: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (capital-bounded envelope) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 300 units to a 3-shoe session lets Fibonacci Negative Sequence overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 216 hands, Fibonacci generates 698u in action, 9.53u in expected loss, and a 12.87% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Fibonacci bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 216-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android