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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · FIBONACCI · 300U / 10-SHOE

Fibonacci Negative Sequence — 300-Unit Bankroll & 10-Shoe (720-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Sequential profile M248-0 evaluates Fibonacci Negative Sequence over a 10-shoe (720-hand) horizon with 300 units: commission-adjusted escalation (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34, 9 steps) interacts with the 100-unit limit to models a 35.51% ruin rate and a absorbing-barrier envelope of 3.23x. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-150u Stop)
35.51%
Target Hit (+75u Cap)
36.54%
720-Hand Expected Hold
31.74u
Table Max (7-Step Depth)
100u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P P P B B B B P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M248 (Fibonacci Negative Sequence, 300u bankroll, 720 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
300u / 10 Shoes (720 Hands)

Matrix cell M248 tests Fibonacci Negative Sequence with a $100 base unit and -150u/+75u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
35.51%

Probability of hitting the -150u drawdown barrier before completing 720 hands or reaching +75u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
36.54%

Share of 720-hand trajectories reaching the +75u session ceiling, with 27.95% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
7 Steps (100u Cap)

A 100-unit house limit and 300-unit stack cap Fibonacci escalation after 7 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
31.74u ($3174)

Derived from 2326u total action (3.23x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M248 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Fibonacci 300u sequential turnover Across 720 Hands (M248)

Under configuration M248-1, deploying Fibonacci with 300 base units over 720 resolved hands (10 shoes) audits a asymmetric turnover: hitting the 100-unit house cap after 7 adverse steps drives a 35.51% stop-loss breach rate against a 36.54% chance of reaching the +75-unit target.

Sequential profile M248-2 tracks Fibonacci Negative Sequence over a 10-shoe (720-hand) horizon with 300 units: combinatorial escalation (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34, 9 steps) interacts with the 100-unit limit to dissects a 35.51% ruin rate and a session-bounded boundary of 3.23x.

M248 ParameterFibonacci (300u)10-Shoe turnover
Fibonacci Ladder1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 (9 steps)Peak 34u multiplier on M248
300u Stack Window720 hands (10 shoes)Barriers -150u / +75u
100u Ceiling & Ruin35.51% ruin vs 36.54% winDepth 7 steps (17 cap hits)
2326u Handle & Hold31.74u ($3174)Multiplier 3.23x (sequential drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

100u Ceiling Collisions & Fibonacci Turnover (10 Shoes)

Under configuration M248-3, deploying Fibonacci with 300 base units over 720 resolved hands (10 shoes) measures a non-stationary decay-rate: hitting the 100-unit house cap after 7 adverse steps drives a 35.51% stop-loss breach rate against a 36.54% chance of reaching the +75-unit target.

Sequential profile M248-4 maps Fibonacci Negative Sequence over a 10-shoe (720-hand) horizon with 300 units: table-capped escalation (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34, 9 steps) interacts with the 100-unit limit to computes a 35.51% ruin rate and a sequential escalation of 3.23x.

  • Cell M248 rule: lock the -150u stop on your 300u Fibonacci stack across 720 hands.
  • Matrix M248 measures 31.74u ($3174) in house hold over 2326u of Fibonacci action.
  • Scoreboard check M248: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (sequential turnover) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 300 units to a 10-shoe session lets Fibonacci Negative Sequence overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 720 hands, Fibonacci generates 2326u in action, 31.74u in expected loss, and a 35.51% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Fibonacci bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 720-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android