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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · FIBONACCI · 150U / 3-SHOE

Fibonacci Negative Sequence — 150-Unit Bankroll & 3-Shoe (216-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

When a 150-unit stack enters a 3-shoe (216-hand) session using Fibonacci Negative Sequence, variance-scaled model M242-0 audits 689u in cumulative action and a 21.67% barrier-absorption probability before the 60-unit table maximum truncates the house-edge-anchored escalation. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-75u Stop)
21.67%
Target Hit (+38u Cap)
39.81%
216-Hand Expected Hold
9.40u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
60u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P B B P P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M242 (Fibonacci Negative Sequence, 150u bankroll, 216 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
150u / 3 Shoes (216 Hands)

Matrix cell M242 tests Fibonacci Negative Sequence with a $50 base unit and -75u/+38u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
21.67%

Probability of hitting the -75u drawdown barrier before completing 216 hands or reaching +38u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
39.81%

Share of 216-hand trajectories reaching the +38u session ceiling, with 38.52% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (60u Cap)

A 60-unit house limit and 150-unit stack cap Fibonacci escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
9.40u ($470)

Derived from 689u total action (3.19x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M242 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Fibonacci 150u finite-shoe progression-curve Across 216 Hands (M242)

Testing Fibonacci (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) at 150 units across 216 coups in cell M242-1 tracks a 21.67% chance of striking the -75-unit stop-loss, while the 60-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 9.40u ($470) in expected erosion.

When a 150-unit stack enters a 3-shoe (216-hand) session using Fibonacci Negative Sequence, eight-deck model M242-2 measures 689u in cumulative action and a 21.67% barrier-absorption probability before the 60-unit table maximum truncates the asymmetric threshold.

M242 ParameterFibonacci (150u)3-Shoe progression-curve
Fibonacci Ladder1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 (9 steps)Peak 34u multiplier on M242
150u Stack Window216 hands (3 shoes)Barriers -75u / +38u
60u Ceiling & Ruin21.67% ruin vs 39.81% winDepth 6 steps (9 cap hits)
689u Handle & Hold9.40u ($470)Multiplier 3.19x (finite-shoe drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

60u Ceiling Collisions & Fibonacci Turnover (3 Shoes)

Testing Fibonacci (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) at 150 units across 216 coups in cell M242-3 maps a 21.67% chance of striking the -75-unit stop-loss, while the 60-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 9.40u ($470) in expected erosion.

When a 150-unit stack enters a 3-shoe (216-hand) session using Fibonacci Negative Sequence, bankroll-constrained model M242-4 documents 689u in cumulative action and a 21.67% barrier-absorption probability before the 60-unit table maximum truncates the bankroll-constrained excursion.

  • Cell M242 rule: lock the -75u stop on your 150u Fibonacci stack across 216 hands.
  • Matrix M242 tabulates 9.40u ($470) in house hold over 689u of Fibonacci action.
  • Scoreboard check M242: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (finite-shoe progression-curve) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 150 units to a 3-shoe session lets Fibonacci Negative Sequence overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 216 hands, Fibonacci generates 689u in action, 9.40u in expected loss, and a 21.67% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Fibonacci bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 216-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android