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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · FIBONACCI · 100U / 5-SHOE

Fibonacci Negative Sequence — 100-Unit Bankroll & 5-Shoe (360-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Case M240-0 models the bankroll-constrained Fibonacci Negative Sequence (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) across a 100-unit bankroll and a 360-hand (5-shoe) window, where a 80-unit table ceiling and 50-unit stop-loss produce a 55.48% ruin rate while audits an average stake excursion of 2.46x and 12.09u ($605) in theoretical house-edge toll. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-50u Stop)
55.48%
Target Hit (+25u Cap)
31.77%
360-Hand Expected Hold
12.09u
Table Max (7-Step Depth)
80u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B P B P P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M240 (Fibonacci Negative Sequence, 100u bankroll, 360 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
100u / 5 Shoes (360 Hands)

Matrix cell M240 tests Fibonacci Negative Sequence with a $50 base unit and -50u/+25u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
55.48%

Probability of hitting the -50u drawdown barrier before completing 360 hands or reaching +25u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
31.77%

Share of 360-hand trajectories reaching the +25u session ceiling, with 12.75% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
7 Steps (80u Cap)

A 80-unit house limit and 100-unit stack cap Fibonacci escalation after 7 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
12.09u ($605)

Derived from 886u total action (2.46x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M240 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Fibonacci 100u session-bounded survival-window Across 360 Hands (M240)

In capital-bounded benchmark M240-1, running Fibonacci across 360 deals with 100 units and a 80-unit maximum wager computes 886u of total handle, 12.09u in commission-weighted drift, and a 55.48% probability of exhausting the 50-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M240-2 inspects the discrete-time Fibonacci Negative Sequence (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) across a 100-unit bankroll and a 360-hand (5-shoe) window, where a 80-unit table ceiling and 50-unit stop-loss produce a 55.48% ruin rate while verifies an average stake turnover of 2.46x and 12.09u ($605) in theoretical house-edge toll.

M240 ParameterFibonacci (100u)5-Shoe survival-window
Fibonacci Ladder1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 (9 steps)Peak 34u multiplier on M240
100u Stack Window360 hands (5 shoes)Barriers -50u / +25u
80u Ceiling & Ruin55.48% ruin vs 31.77% winDepth 7 steps (11 cap hits)
886u Handle & Hold12.09u ($605)Multiplier 2.46x (session-bounded drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

80u Ceiling Collisions & Fibonacci Turnover (5 Shoes)

In commission-adjusted benchmark M240-3, running Fibonacci across 360 deals with 100 units and a 80-unit maximum wager verifies 886u of total handle, 12.09u in commission-weighted drift, and a 55.48% probability of exhausting the 50-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M240-4 tabulates the asymmetric Fibonacci Negative Sequence (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) across a 100-unit bankroll and a 360-hand (5-shoe) window, where a 80-unit table ceiling and 50-unit stop-loss produce a 55.48% ruin rate while tracks an average stake decay-rate of 2.46x and 12.09u ($605) in theoretical house-edge toll.

  • Cell M240 rule: lock the -50u stop on your 100u Fibonacci stack across 360 hands.
  • Matrix M240 computes 12.09u ($605) in house hold over 886u of Fibonacci action.
  • Scoreboard check M240: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (session-bounded survival-window) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 100 units to a 5-shoe session lets Fibonacci Negative Sequence overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 360 hands, Fibonacci generates 886u in action, 12.09u in expected loss, and a 55.48% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Fibonacci bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 360-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android