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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · D'ALEMBERT · 75U / 3-SHOE

D'Alembert Pyramid — 75-Unit Bankroll & 3-Shoe (216-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Across 216 eight-deck hands (3 shoes), bankroll-constrained simulation M287-0 for D'Alembert Pyramid on a 75-unit bankroll documents a 33.06% risk-of-ruin figure, verifies 3 ceiling-collision events against the 60-unit cap and a 30.12% mid-corridor finish rate. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-38u Stop)
33.06%
Target Hit (+19u Cap)
36.82%
216-Hand Expected Hold
4.37u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
60u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B P B B P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = =
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M287 (D'Alembert Pyramid, 75u bankroll, 216 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
75u / 3 Shoes (216 Hands)

Matrix cell M287 tests D'Alembert Pyramid with a $50 base unit and -38u/+19u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
33.06%

Probability of hitting the -38u drawdown barrier before completing 216 hands or reaching +19u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
36.82%

Share of 216-hand trajectories reaching the +19u session ceiling, with 30.12% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (60u Cap)

A 60-unit house limit and 75-unit stack cap D'Alembert escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
4.37u ($219)

Derived from 341u total action (1.58x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M287 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

D'Alembert 75u bankroll-constrained boundary Across 216 Hands (M287)

Cell M287-1 benchmarks the capital-bounded dispersion of a 75-unit D'Alembert plan over 216 hands: because each hand remains independent at 1.058% Banker edge, scaling stakes toward the 60-unit ceiling elevates total turnover to 341u and sets ruin at 33.06%.

Across 216 eight-deck hands (3 shoes), discrete-time simulation M287-2 for D'Alembert Pyramid on a 75-unit bankroll models a 33.06% risk-of-ruin figure, tracks 3 ceiling-collision events against the 60-unit cap and a 30.12% mid-corridor finish rate.

M287 ParameterD'Alembert (75u)3-Shoe boundary
D'Alembert Ladder+1 on loss / -1 on win (10 steps)Peak 12u multiplier on M287
75u Stack Window216 hands (3 shoes)Barriers -38u / +19u
60u Ceiling & Ruin33.06% ruin vs 36.82% winDepth 6 steps (3 cap hits)
341u Handle & Hold4.37u ($219)Multiplier 1.58x (bankroll-constrained drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

60u Ceiling Collisions & D'Alembert Turnover (3 Shoes)

Cell M287-3 computes the commission-adjusted distribution of a 75-unit D'Alembert plan over 216 hands: because each hand remains independent at 1.058% Banker edge, scaling stakes toward the 60-unit ceiling elevates total turnover to 341u and sets ruin at 33.06%.

Across 216 eight-deck hands (3 shoes), asymmetric simulation M287-4 for D'Alembert Pyramid on a 75-unit bankroll inspects a 33.06% risk-of-ruin figure, tabulates 3 ceiling-collision events against the 60-unit cap and a 30.12% mid-corridor finish rate.

  • Cell M287 rule: lock the -38u stop on your 75u D'Alembert stack across 216 hands.
  • Matrix M287 tracks 4.37u ($219) in house hold over 341u of D'Alembert action.
  • Scoreboard check M287: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (bankroll-constrained boundary) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 75 units to a 3-shoe session lets D'Alembert Pyramid overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 216 hands, D'Alembert generates 341u in action, 4.37u in expected loss, and a 33.06% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell D'Alembert bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 216-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android