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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · D'ALEMBERT · 500U / 5-SHOE

D'Alembert Pyramid — 500-Unit Bankroll & 5-Shoe (360-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Within multi-coup horizon M300-0, a 500-unit treasury backing D'Alembert Pyramid for 360 hands (5 shoes) faces a 80-unit bet cap that evaluates 9.00% ruin exposure, 44.79% target attainment at +125u, and 46.21% time-limit expiration. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-250u Stop)
9.00%
Target Hit (+125u Cap)
44.79%
360-Hand Expected Hold
10.09u
Table Max (7-Step Depth)
80u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P B B B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M300 (D'Alembert Pyramid, 500u bankroll, 360 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
500u / 5 Shoes (360 Hands)

Matrix cell M300 tests D'Alembert Pyramid with a $50 base unit and -250u/+125u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
9.00%

Probability of hitting the -250u drawdown barrier before completing 360 hands or reaching +125u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
44.79%

Share of 360-hand trajectories reaching the +125u session ceiling, with 46.21% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
7 Steps (80u Cap)

A 80-unit house limit and 500-unit stack cap D'Alembert escalation after 7 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
10.09u ($505)

Derived from 788u total action (2.19x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M300 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

D'Alembert 500u commission-adjusted footprint Across 360 Hands (M300)

Horizon matrix M300-1 audits how D'Alembert (+1 on loss / -1 on win) behaves inside a 500-unit session budget across 360 coups, showing that a 80-unit pit limit and 250-unit floor generate a 9.00% drawdown-trigger rate alongside 10.09u in expected 8-deck vigorish.

Within session-bounded horizon M300-2, a 500-unit treasury backing D'Alembert Pyramid for 360 hands (5 shoes) faces a 80-unit bet cap that tracks 9.00% ruin exposure, 44.79% target attainment at +125u, and 46.21% time-limit expiration.

M300 ParameterD'Alembert (500u)5-Shoe footprint
D'Alembert Ladder+1 on loss / -1 on win (10 steps)Peak 12u multiplier on M300
500u Stack Window360 hands (5 shoes)Barriers -250u / +125u
80u Ceiling & Ruin9.00% ruin vs 44.79% winDepth 7 steps (4 cap hits)
788u Handle & Hold10.09u ($505)Multiplier 2.19x (commission-adjusted drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

80u Ceiling Collisions & D'Alembert Turnover (5 Shoes)

Horizon matrix M300-3 measures how D'Alembert (+1 on loss / -1 on win) behaves inside a 500-unit session budget across 360 coups, showing that a 80-unit pit limit and 250-unit floor generate a 9.00% drawdown-trigger rate alongside 10.09u in expected 8-deck vigorish.

Within step-indexed horizon M300-4, a 500-unit treasury backing D'Alembert Pyramid for 360 hands (5 shoes) faces a 80-unit bet cap that maps 9.00% ruin exposure, 44.79% target attainment at +125u, and 46.21% time-limit expiration.

  • Cell M300 rule: lock the -250u stop on your 500u D'Alembert stack across 360 hands.
  • Matrix M300 charts 10.09u ($505) in house hold over 788u of D'Alembert action.
  • Scoreboard check M300: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (commission-adjusted footprint) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 500 units to a 5-shoe session lets D'Alembert Pyramid overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 360 hands, D'Alembert generates 788u in action, 10.09u in expected loss, and a 9.00% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell D'Alembert bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 360-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android