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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · D'ALEMBERT · 40U / 10-SHOE

D'Alembert Pyramid — 40-Unit Bankroll & 10-Shoe (720-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Case M283-0 evaluates the house-edge-anchored D'Alembert Pyramid (+1 on loss / -1 on win) across a 40-unit bankroll and a 720-hand (10-shoe) window, where a 100-unit table ceiling and 20-unit stop-loss produce a 94.80% ruin rate while models an average stake capital-runway of 1.31x and 12.07u ($1207) in theoretical house-edge toll. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-20u Stop)
94.80%
Target Hit (+10u Cap)
19.94%
720-Hand Expected Hold
12.07u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
100u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M283 (D'Alembert Pyramid, 40u bankroll, 720 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
40u / 10 Shoes (720 Hands)

Matrix cell M283 tests D'Alembert Pyramid with a $100 base unit and -20u/+10u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
94.80%

Probability of hitting the -20u drawdown barrier before completing 720 hands or reaching +10u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
19.94%

Share of 720-hand trajectories reaching the +10u session ceiling, with 0.50% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (100u Cap)

A 100-unit house limit and 40-unit stack cap D'Alembert escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
12.07u ($1207)

Derived from 943u total action (1.31x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M283 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

D'Alembert 40u discrete-time exposure Across 720 Hands (M283)

In stochastic benchmark M283-1, running D'Alembert across 720 deals with 40 units and a 100-unit maximum wager audits 943u of total handle, 12.07u in commission-weighted drift, and a 94.80% probability of exhausting the 20-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M283-2 tracks the sequential D'Alembert Pyramid (+1 on loss / -1 on win) across a 40-unit bankroll and a 720-hand (10-shoe) window, where a 100-unit table ceiling and 20-unit stop-loss produce a 94.80% ruin rate while dissects an average stake absorption-curve of 1.31x and 12.07u ($1207) in theoretical house-edge toll.

M283 ParameterD'Alembert (40u)10-Shoe exposure
D'Alembert Ladder+1 on loss / -1 on win (10 steps)Peak 12u multiplier on M283
40u Stack Window720 hands (10 shoes)Barriers -20u / +10u
100u Ceiling & Ruin94.80% ruin vs 19.94% winDepth 6 steps (6 cap hits)
943u Handle & Hold12.07u ($1207)Multiplier 1.31x (discrete-time drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

100u Ceiling Collisions & D'Alembert Turnover (10 Shoes)

In drawdown-weighted benchmark M283-3, running D'Alembert across 720 deals with 40 units and a 100-unit maximum wager measures 943u of total handle, 12.07u in commission-weighted drift, and a 94.80% probability of exhausting the 20-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M283-4 maps the multi-coup D'Alembert Pyramid (+1 on loss / -1 on win) across a 40-unit bankroll and a 720-hand (10-shoe) window, where a 100-unit table ceiling and 20-unit stop-loss produce a 94.80% ruin rate while computes an average stake stake-velocity of 1.31x and 12.07u ($1207) in theoretical house-edge toll.

  • Cell M283 rule: lock the -20u stop on your 40u D'Alembert stack across 720 hands.
  • Matrix M283 charts 12.07u ($1207) in house hold over 943u of D'Alembert action.
  • Scoreboard check M283: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (discrete-time exposure) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 40 units to a 10-shoe session lets D'Alembert Pyramid overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 720 hands, D'Alembert generates 943u in action, 12.07u in expected loss, and a 94.80% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell D'Alembert bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 720-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android