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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · D'ALEMBERT · 30U / 5-SHOE

D'Alembert Pyramid — 30-Unit Bankroll & 5-Shoe (360-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Across 360 eight-deck hands (5 shoes), session-bounded simulation M280-0 for D'Alembert Pyramid on a 30-unit bankroll inspects a 94.80% risk-of-ruin figure, inspects 4 ceiling-collision events against the 80-unit cap and a 0.50% mid-corridor finish rate. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-15u Stop)
94.80%
Target Hit (+8u Cap)
19.77%
360-Hand Expected Hold
5.67u
Table Max (5-Step Depth)
80u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P B B P P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M280 (D'Alembert Pyramid, 30u bankroll, 360 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
30u / 5 Shoes (360 Hands)

Matrix cell M280 tests D'Alembert Pyramid with a $50 base unit and -15u/+8u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
94.80%

Probability of hitting the -15u drawdown barrier before completing 360 hands or reaching +8u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
19.77%

Share of 360-hand trajectories reaching the +8u session ceiling, with 0.50% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
5 Steps (80u Cap)

A 80-unit house limit and 30-unit stack cap D'Alembert escalation after 5 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
5.67u ($284)

Derived from 443u total action (1.23x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M280 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

D'Alembert 30u finite-shoe stake-velocity Across 360 Hands (M280)

Cell M280-1 verifies the variance-scaled distribution of a 30-unit D'Alembert plan over 360 hands: because each hand remains independent at 1.058% Banker edge, scaling stakes toward the 80-unit ceiling elevates total turnover to 443u and sets ruin at 94.80%.

Across 360 eight-deck hands (5 shoes), step-indexed simulation M280-2 for D'Alembert Pyramid on a 30-unit bankroll tabulates a 94.80% risk-of-ruin figure, audits 4 ceiling-collision events against the 80-unit cap and a 0.50% mid-corridor finish rate.

M280 ParameterD'Alembert (30u)5-Shoe stake-velocity
D'Alembert Ladder+1 on loss / -1 on win (10 steps)Peak 12u multiplier on M280
30u Stack Window360 hands (5 shoes)Barriers -15u / +8u
80u Ceiling & Ruin94.80% ruin vs 19.77% winDepth 5 steps (4 cap hits)
443u Handle & Hold5.67u ($284)Multiplier 1.23x (finite-shoe drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

80u Ceiling Collisions & D'Alembert Turnover (5 Shoes)

Cell M280-3 quantifies the eight-deck envelope of a 30-unit D'Alembert plan over 360 hands: because each hand remains independent at 1.058% Banker edge, scaling stakes toward the 80-unit ceiling elevates total turnover to 443u and sets ruin at 94.80%.

Across 360 eight-deck hands (5 shoes), absorbing-barrier simulation M280-4 for D'Alembert Pyramid on a 30-unit bankroll charts a 94.80% risk-of-ruin figure, verifies 4 ceiling-collision events against the 80-unit cap and a 0.50% mid-corridor finish rate.

  • Cell M280 rule: lock the -15u stop on your 30u D'Alembert stack across 360 hands.
  • Matrix M280 evaluates 5.67u ($284) in house hold over 443u of D'Alembert action.
  • Scoreboard check M280: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (finite-shoe stake-velocity) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 30 units to a 5-shoe session lets D'Alembert Pyramid overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 360 hands, D'Alembert generates 443u in action, 5.67u in expected loss, and a 94.80% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell D'Alembert bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 360-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android