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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · D'ALEMBERT · 30U / 2-SHOE

D'Alembert Pyramid — 30-Unit Bankroll & 2-Shoe (144-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Within step-indexed horizon M279-0, a 30-unit treasury backing D'Alembert Pyramid for 144 hands (2 shoes) faces a 50-unit bet cap that quantifies 53.74% ruin exposure, 30.86% target attainment at +8u, and 15.41% time-limit expiration. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-15u Stop)
53.74%
Target Hit (+8u Cap)
30.86%
144-Hand Expected Hold
2.27u
Table Max (5-Step Depth)
50u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B B P P B B P P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M279 (D'Alembert Pyramid, 30u bankroll, 144 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
30u / 2 Shoes (144 Hands)

Matrix cell M279 tests D'Alembert Pyramid with a $25 base unit and -15u/+8u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
53.74%

Probability of hitting the -15u drawdown barrier before completing 144 hands or reaching +8u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
30.86%

Share of 144-hand trajectories reaching the +8u session ceiling, with 15.41% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
5 Steps (50u Cap)

A 50-unit house limit and 30-unit stack cap D'Alembert escalation after 5 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
2.27u ($57)

Derived from 177u total action (1.23x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M279 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

D'Alembert 30u asymmetric cadence Across 144 Hands (M279)

Horizon matrix M279-1 charts how D'Alembert (+1 on loss / -1 on win) behaves inside a 30-unit session budget across 144 coups, showing that a 50-unit pit limit and 15-unit floor generate a 53.74% drawdown-trigger rate alongside 2.27u in expected 8-deck vigorish.

Within absorbing-barrier horizon M279-2, a 30-unit treasury backing D'Alembert Pyramid for 144 hands (2 shoes) faces a 50-unit bet cap that profiles 53.74% ruin exposure, 30.86% target attainment at +8u, and 15.41% time-limit expiration.

M279 ParameterD'Alembert (30u)2-Shoe cadence
D'Alembert Ladder+1 on loss / -1 on win (10 steps)Peak 12u multiplier on M279
30u Stack Window144 hands (2 shoes)Barriers -15u / +8u
50u Ceiling & Ruin53.74% ruin vs 30.86% winDepth 5 steps (2 cap hits)
177u Handle & Hold2.27u ($57)Multiplier 1.23x (asymmetric drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

50u Ceiling Collisions & D'Alembert Turnover (2 Shoes)

Horizon matrix M279-3 calibrates how D'Alembert (+1 on loss / -1 on win) behaves inside a 30-unit session budget across 144 coups, showing that a 50-unit pit limit and 15-unit floor generate a 53.74% drawdown-trigger rate alongside 2.27u in expected 8-deck vigorish.

Within capital-bounded horizon M279-4, a 30-unit treasury backing D'Alembert Pyramid for 144 hands (2 shoes) faces a 50-unit bet cap that dissects 53.74% ruin exposure, 30.86% target attainment at +8u, and 15.41% time-limit expiration.

  • Cell M279 rule: lock the -15u stop on your 30u D'Alembert stack across 144 hands.
  • Matrix M279 models 2.27u ($57) in house hold over 177u of D'Alembert action.
  • Scoreboard check M279: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (asymmetric cadence) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 30 units to a 2-shoe session lets D'Alembert Pyramid overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 144 hands, D'Alembert generates 177u in action, 2.27u in expected loss, and a 53.74% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell D'Alembert bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 144-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android