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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · D'ALEMBERT · 300U / 10-SHOE

D'Alembert Pyramid — 300-Unit Bankroll & 10-Shoe (720-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Sequential profile M298-0 benchmarks D'Alembert Pyramid over a 10-shoe (720-hand) horizon with 300 units: step-indexed escalation (+1 on loss / -1 on win, 10 steps) interacts with the 100-unit limit to profiles a 26.68% ruin rate and a asymmetric escalation of 2.19x. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-150u Stop)
26.68%
Target Hit (+75u Cap)
39.02%
720-Hand Expected Hold
20.19u
Table Max (7-Step Depth)
100u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P B B P P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M298 (D'Alembert Pyramid, 300u bankroll, 720 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
300u / 10 Shoes (720 Hands)

Matrix cell M298 tests D'Alembert Pyramid with a $100 base unit and -150u/+75u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
26.68%

Probability of hitting the -150u drawdown barrier before completing 720 hands or reaching +75u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
39.02%

Share of 720-hand trajectories reaching the +75u session ceiling, with 34.30% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
7 Steps (100u Cap)

A 100-unit house limit and 300-unit stack cap D'Alembert escalation after 7 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
20.19u ($2019)

Derived from 1577u total action (2.19x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M298 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

D'Alembert 300u asymmetric threshold Across 720 Hands (M298)

Under configuration M298-1, deploying D'Alembert with 300 base units over 720 resolved hands (10 shoes) models a eight-deck capital-runway: hitting the 100-unit house cap after 7 adverse steps drives a 26.68% stop-loss breach rate against a 39.02% chance of reaching the +75-unit target.

Sequential profile M298-2 computes D'Alembert Pyramid over a 10-shoe (720-hand) horizon with 300 units: absorbing-barrier escalation (+1 on loss / -1 on win, 10 steps) interacts with the 100-unit limit to benchmarks a 26.68% ruin rate and a bankroll-constrained threshold of 2.19x.

M298 ParameterD'Alembert (300u)10-Shoe threshold
D'Alembert Ladder+1 on loss / -1 on win (10 steps)Peak 12u multiplier on M298
300u Stack Window720 hands (10 shoes)Barriers -150u / +75u
100u Ceiling & Ruin26.68% ruin vs 39.02% winDepth 7 steps (6 cap hits)
1577u Handle & Hold20.19u ($2019)Multiplier 2.19x (asymmetric drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

100u Ceiling Collisions & D'Alembert Turnover (10 Shoes)

Under configuration M298-3, deploying D'Alembert with 300 base units over 720 resolved hands (10 shoes) inspects a bankroll-constrained absorption-curve: hitting the 100-unit house cap after 7 adverse steps drives a 26.68% stop-loss breach rate against a 39.02% chance of reaching the +75-unit target.

Sequential profile M298-4 verifies D'Alembert Pyramid over a 10-shoe (720-hand) horizon with 300 units: capital-bounded escalation (+1 on loss / -1 on win, 10 steps) interacts with the 100-unit limit to calibrates a 26.68% ruin rate and a variance-scaled excursion of 2.19x.

  • Cell M298 rule: lock the -150u stop on your 300u D'Alembert stack across 720 hands.
  • Matrix M298 verifies 20.19u ($2019) in house hold over 1577u of D'Alembert action.
  • Scoreboard check M298: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (asymmetric threshold) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 300 units to a 10-shoe session lets D'Alembert Pyramid overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 720 hands, D'Alembert generates 1577u in action, 20.19u in expected loss, and a 26.68% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell D'Alembert bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 720-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android