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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · D'ALEMBERT · 20U / 3-SHOE

D'Alembert Pyramid — 20-Unit Bankroll & 3-Shoe (216-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Sequential profile M277-0 audits D'Alembert Pyramid over a 3-shoe (216-hand) horizon with 20 units: capital-bounded escalation (+1 on loss / -1 on win, 10 steps) interacts with the 60-unit limit to tabulates a 94.80% ruin rate and a table-capped profile of 1.16x. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-10u Stop)
94.80%
Target Hit (+6u Cap)
16.68%
216-Hand Expected Hold
3.21u
Table Max (5-Step Depth)
60u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P B P B P B B P P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M277 (D'Alembert Pyramid, 20u bankroll, 216 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
20u / 3 Shoes (216 Hands)

Matrix cell M277 tests D'Alembert Pyramid with a $50 base unit and -10u/+6u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
94.80%

Probability of hitting the -10u drawdown barrier before completing 216 hands or reaching +6u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
16.68%

Share of 216-hand trajectories reaching the +6u session ceiling, with 0.50% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
5 Steps (60u Cap)

A 60-unit house limit and 20-unit stack cap D'Alembert escalation after 5 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
3.21u ($161)

Derived from 251u total action (1.16x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M277 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

D'Alembert 20u combinatorial footprint Across 216 Hands (M277)

Under configuration M277-1, deploying D'Alembert with 20 base units over 216 resolved hands (3 shoes) tracks a discrete-time drawdown-slope: hitting the 60-unit house cap after 5 adverse steps drives a 94.80% stop-loss breach rate against a 16.68% chance of reaching the +6-unit target.

Sequential profile M277-2 measures D'Alembert Pyramid over a 3-shoe (216-hand) horizon with 20 units: commission-adjusted escalation (+1 on loss / -1 on win, 10 steps) interacts with the 60-unit limit to measures a 94.80% ruin rate and a commission-adjusted cadence of 1.16x.

M277 ParameterD'Alembert (20u)3-Shoe footprint
D'Alembert Ladder+1 on loss / -1 on win (10 steps)Peak 12u multiplier on M277
20u Stack Window216 hands (3 shoes)Barriers -10u / +6u
60u Ceiling & Ruin94.80% ruin vs 16.68% winDepth 5 steps (3 cap hits)
251u Handle & Hold3.21u ($161)Multiplier 1.16x (combinatorial drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

60u Ceiling Collisions & D'Alembert Turnover (3 Shoes)

Under configuration M277-3, deploying D'Alembert with 20 base units over 216 resolved hands (3 shoes) maps a asymmetric volatility-band: hitting the 60-unit house cap after 5 adverse steps drives a 94.80% stop-loss breach rate against a 16.68% chance of reaching the +6-unit target.

Sequential profile M277-4 documents D'Alembert Pyramid over a 3-shoe (216-hand) horizon with 20 units: combinatorial escalation (+1 on loss / -1 on win, 10 steps) interacts with the 60-unit limit to quantifies a 94.80% ruin rate and a absorbing-barrier decay-rate of 1.16x.

  • Cell M277 rule: lock the -10u stop on your 20u D'Alembert stack across 216 hands.
  • Matrix M277 maps 3.21u ($161) in house hold over 251u of D'Alembert action.
  • Scoreboard check M277: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (combinatorial footprint) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 20 units to a 3-shoe session lets D'Alembert Pyramid overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 216 hands, D'Alembert generates 251u in action, 3.21u in expected loss, and a 94.80% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell D'Alembert bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 216-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android