Skip to main content
Baccarat Smart
  1. Home
  2. Combinatorial Math & Odds Hub
  3. D'Alembert 200u 2-Shoe Matrix
STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · D'ALEMBERT · 200U / 2-SHOE

D'Alembert Pyramid — 200-Unit Bankroll & 2-Shoe (144-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Across 144 eight-deck hands (2 shoes), combinatorial simulation M294-0 for D'Alembert Pyramid on a 200-unit bankroll audits a 9.37% risk-of-ruin figure, tabulates 2 ceiling-collision events against the 50-unit cap and a 46.35% mid-corridor finish rate. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-100u Stop)
9.37%
Target Hit (+50u Cap)
44.27%
144-Hand Expected Hold
4.03u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
50u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P B B P P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M294 (D'Alembert Pyramid, 200u bankroll, 144 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
200u / 2 Shoes (144 Hands)

Matrix cell M294 tests D'Alembert Pyramid with a $25 base unit and -100u/+50u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
9.37%

Probability of hitting the -100u drawdown barrier before completing 144 hands or reaching +50u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
44.27%

Share of 144-hand trajectories reaching the +50u session ceiling, with 46.35% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (50u Cap)

A 50-unit house limit and 200-unit stack cap D'Alembert escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
4.03u ($101)

Derived from 315u total action (2.19x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M294 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

D'Alembert 200u non-stationary turnover Across 144 Hands (M294)

Cell M294-1 tracks the non-stationary boundary of a 200-unit D'Alembert plan over 144 hands: because each hand remains independent at 1.058% Banker edge, scaling stakes toward the 50-unit ceiling elevates total turnover to 315u and sets ruin at 9.37%.

Across 144 eight-deck hands (2 shoes), table-capped simulation M294-2 for D'Alembert Pyramid on a 200-unit bankroll measures a 9.37% risk-of-ruin figure, measures 2 ceiling-collision events against the 50-unit cap and a 46.35% mid-corridor finish rate.

M294 ParameterD'Alembert (200u)2-Shoe turnover
D'Alembert Ladder+1 on loss / -1 on win (10 steps)Peak 12u multiplier on M294
200u Stack Window144 hands (2 shoes)Barriers -100u / +50u
50u Ceiling & Ruin9.37% ruin vs 44.27% winDepth 6 steps (2 cap hits)
315u Handle & Hold4.03u ($101)Multiplier 2.19x (non-stationary drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

50u Ceiling Collisions & D'Alembert Turnover (2 Shoes)

Cell M294-3 maps the house-edge-anchored dispersion of a 200-unit D'Alembert plan over 144 hands: because each hand remains independent at 1.058% Banker edge, scaling stakes toward the 50-unit ceiling elevates total turnover to 315u and sets ruin at 9.37%.

Across 144 eight-deck hands (2 shoes), stochastic simulation M294-4 for D'Alembert Pyramid on a 200-unit bankroll documents a 9.37% risk-of-ruin figure, quantifies 2 ceiling-collision events against the 50-unit cap and a 46.35% mid-corridor finish rate.

  • Cell M294 rule: lock the -100u stop on your 200u D'Alembert stack across 144 hands.
  • Matrix M294 maps 4.03u ($101) in house hold over 315u of D'Alembert action.
  • Scoreboard check M294: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (non-stationary turnover) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 200 units to a 2-shoe session lets D'Alembert Pyramid overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 144 hands, D'Alembert generates 315u in action, 4.03u in expected loss, and a 9.37% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell D'Alembert bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 144-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android