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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · D'ALEMBERT · 150U / 3-SHOE

D'Alembert Pyramid — 150-Unit Bankroll & 3-Shoe (216-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

When a 150-unit stack enters a 3-shoe (216-hand) session using D'Alembert Pyramid, stochastic model M292-0 models 467u in cumulative action and a 16.53% barrier-absorption probability before the 60-unit table maximum truncates the finite-shoe excursion. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-75u Stop)
16.53%
Target Hit (+38u Cap)
41.25%
216-Hand Expected Hold
5.98u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
60u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B P B P B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M292 (D'Alembert Pyramid, 150u bankroll, 216 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
150u / 3 Shoes (216 Hands)

Matrix cell M292 tests D'Alembert Pyramid with a $50 base unit and -75u/+38u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
16.53%

Probability of hitting the -75u drawdown barrier before completing 216 hands or reaching +38u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
41.25%

Share of 216-hand trajectories reaching the +38u session ceiling, with 42.23% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (60u Cap)

A 60-unit house limit and 150-unit stack cap D'Alembert escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
5.98u ($299)

Derived from 467u total action (2.16x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M292 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

D'Alembert 150u table-capped excursion Across 216 Hands (M292)

Testing D'Alembert (+1 on loss / -1 on win) at 150 units across 216 coups in cell M292-1 computes a 16.53% chance of striking the -75-unit stop-loss, while the 60-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 5.98u ($299) in expected erosion.

When a 150-unit stack enters a 3-shoe (216-hand) session using D'Alembert Pyramid, drawdown-weighted model M292-2 inspects 467u in cumulative action and a 16.53% barrier-absorption probability before the 60-unit table maximum truncates the stochastic survival-window.

M292 ParameterD'Alembert (150u)3-Shoe excursion
D'Alembert Ladder+1 on loss / -1 on win (10 steps)Peak 12u multiplier on M292
150u Stack Window216 hands (3 shoes)Barriers -75u / +38u
60u Ceiling & Ruin16.53% ruin vs 41.25% winDepth 6 steps (3 cap hits)
467u Handle & Hold5.98u ($299)Multiplier 2.16x (table-capped drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

60u Ceiling Collisions & D'Alembert Turnover (3 Shoes)

Testing D'Alembert (+1 on loss / -1 on win) at 150 units across 216 coups in cell M292-3 verifies a 16.53% chance of striking the -75-unit stop-loss, while the 60-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 5.98u ($299) in expected erosion.

When a 150-unit stack enters a 3-shoe (216-hand) session using D'Alembert Pyramid, finite-shoe model M292-4 tabulates 467u in cumulative action and a 16.53% barrier-absorption probability before the 60-unit table maximum truncates the combinatorial stake-velocity.

  • Cell M292 rule: lock the -75u stop on your 150u D'Alembert stack across 216 hands.
  • Matrix M292 audits 5.98u ($299) in house hold over 467u of D'Alembert action.
  • Scoreboard check M292: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (table-capped excursion) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 150 units to a 3-shoe session lets D'Alembert Pyramid overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 216 hands, D'Alembert generates 467u in action, 5.98u in expected loss, and a 16.53% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell D'Alembert bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 216-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
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