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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · D'ALEMBERT · 150U / 10-SHOE

D'Alembert Pyramid — 150-Unit Bankroll & 10-Shoe (720-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Within table-capped horizon M293-0, a 150-unit treasury backing D'Alembert Pyramid for 720 hands (10 shoes) faces a 100-unit bet cap that maps 53.74% ruin exposure, 31.24% target attainment at +38u, and 15.03% time-limit expiration. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-75u Stop)
53.74%
Target Hit (+38u Cap)
31.24%
720-Hand Expected Hold
19.90u
Table Max (7-Step Depth)
100u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B B P P B B P P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M293 (D'Alembert Pyramid, 150u bankroll, 720 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
150u / 10 Shoes (720 Hands)

Matrix cell M293 tests D'Alembert Pyramid with a $100 base unit and -75u/+38u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
53.74%

Probability of hitting the -75u drawdown barrier before completing 720 hands or reaching +38u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
31.24%

Share of 720-hand trajectories reaching the +38u session ceiling, with 15.03% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
7 Steps (100u Cap)

A 100-unit house limit and 150-unit stack cap D'Alembert escalation after 7 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
19.90u ($1990)

Derived from 1555u total action (2.16x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M293 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

D'Alembert 150u step-indexed envelope Across 720 Hands (M293)

Horizon matrix M293-1 documents how D'Alembert (+1 on loss / -1 on win) behaves inside a 150-unit session budget across 720 coups, showing that a 100-unit pit limit and 75-unit floor generate a 53.74% drawdown-trigger rate alongside 19.90u in expected 8-deck vigorish.

Within stochastic horizon M293-2, a 150-unit treasury backing D'Alembert Pyramid for 720 hands (10 shoes) faces a 100-unit bet cap that benchmarks 53.74% ruin exposure, 31.24% target attainment at +38u, and 15.03% time-limit expiration.

M293 ParameterD'Alembert (150u)10-Shoe envelope
D'Alembert Ladder+1 on loss / -1 on win (10 steps)Peak 12u multiplier on M293
150u Stack Window720 hands (10 shoes)Barriers -75u / +38u
100u Ceiling & Ruin53.74% ruin vs 31.24% winDepth 7 steps (6 cap hits)
1555u Handle & Hold19.90u ($1990)Multiplier 2.16x (step-indexed drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

100u Ceiling Collisions & D'Alembert Turnover (10 Shoes)

Horizon matrix M293-3 models how D'Alembert (+1 on loss / -1 on win) behaves inside a 150-unit session budget across 720 coups, showing that a 100-unit pit limit and 75-unit floor generate a 53.74% drawdown-trigger rate alongside 19.90u in expected 8-deck vigorish.

Within drawdown-weighted horizon M293-4, a 150-unit treasury backing D'Alembert Pyramid for 720 hands (10 shoes) faces a 100-unit bet cap that computes 53.74% ruin exposure, 31.24% target attainment at +38u, and 15.03% time-limit expiration.

  • Cell M293 rule: lock the -75u stop on your 150u D'Alembert stack across 720 hands.
  • Matrix M293 tabulates 19.90u ($1990) in house hold over 1555u of D'Alembert action.
  • Scoreboard check M293: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (step-indexed envelope) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 150 units to a 10-shoe session lets D'Alembert Pyramid overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 720 hands, D'Alembert generates 1555u in action, 19.90u in expected loss, and a 53.74% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell D'Alembert bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 720-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android