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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · D'ALEMBERT · 100U / 5-SHOE

D'Alembert Pyramid — 100-Unit Bankroll & 5-Shoe (360-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Case M290-0 charts the finite-shoe D'Alembert Pyramid (+1 on loss / -1 on win) across a 100-unit bankroll and a 360-hand (5-shoe) window, where a 80-unit table ceiling and 50-unit stop-loss produce a 39.47% ruin rate while computes an average stake cycle-span of 1.78x and 8.21u ($411) in theoretical house-edge toll. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-50u Stop)
39.47%
Target Hit (+25u Cap)
36.26%
360-Hand Expected Hold
8.21u
Table Max (7-Step Depth)
80u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P P P B B B B P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M290 (D'Alembert Pyramid, 100u bankroll, 360 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
100u / 5 Shoes (360 Hands)

Matrix cell M290 tests D'Alembert Pyramid with a $50 base unit and -50u/+25u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
39.47%

Probability of hitting the -50u drawdown barrier before completing 360 hands or reaching +25u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
36.26%

Share of 360-hand trajectories reaching the +25u session ceiling, with 24.28% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
7 Steps (80u Cap)

A 80-unit house limit and 100-unit stack cap D'Alembert escalation after 7 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
8.21u ($411)

Derived from 641u total action (1.78x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M290 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

D'Alembert 100u house-edge-anchored ledger Across 360 Hands (M290)

In session-bounded benchmark M290-1, running D'Alembert across 360 deals with 100 units and a 80-unit maximum wager profiles 641u of total handle, 8.21u in commission-weighted drift, and a 39.47% probability of exhausting the 50-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M290-2 calibrates the variance-scaled D'Alembert Pyramid (+1 on loss / -1 on win) across a 100-unit bankroll and a 360-hand (5-shoe) window, where a 80-unit table ceiling and 50-unit stop-loss produce a 39.47% ruin rate while evaluates an average stake capital-runway of 1.78x and 8.21u ($411) in theoretical house-edge toll.

M290 ParameterD'Alembert (100u)5-Shoe ledger
D'Alembert Ladder+1 on loss / -1 on win (10 steps)Peak 12u multiplier on M290
100u Stack Window360 hands (5 shoes)Barriers -50u / +25u
80u Ceiling & Ruin39.47% ruin vs 36.26% winDepth 7 steps (4 cap hits)
641u Handle & Hold8.21u ($411)Multiplier 1.78x (house-edge-anchored drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

80u Ceiling Collisions & D'Alembert Turnover (5 Shoes)

In step-indexed benchmark M290-3, running D'Alembert across 360 deals with 100 units and a 80-unit maximum wager dissects 641u of total handle, 8.21u in commission-weighted drift, and a 39.47% probability of exhausting the 50-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M290-4 evaluates the eight-deck D'Alembert Pyramid (+1 on loss / -1 on win) across a 100-unit bankroll and a 360-hand (5-shoe) window, where a 80-unit table ceiling and 50-unit stop-loss produce a 39.47% ruin rate while inspects an average stake absorption-curve of 1.78x and 8.21u ($411) in theoretical house-edge toll.

  • Cell M290 rule: lock the -50u stop on your 100u D'Alembert stack across 360 hands.
  • Matrix M290 calibrates 8.21u ($411) in house hold over 641u of D'Alembert action.
  • Scoreboard check M290: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (house-edge-anchored ledger) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 100 units to a 5-shoe session lets D'Alembert Pyramid overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 360 hands, D'Alembert generates 641u in action, 8.21u in expected loss, and a 39.47% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell D'Alembert bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 360-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android