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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · CONTRA D'ALEMBERT · 500U / 2-SHOE
Contra D'Alembert Press — 500-Unit Bankroll & 2-Shoe (144-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix
When a 500-unit stack enters a 2-shoe (144-hand) session using Contra D'Alembert Press, drawdown-weighted model M324-0 benchmarks 281u in cumulative action and a 5.13% barrier-absorption probability before the 50-unit table maximum truncates the combinatorial footprint. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.
- Ruin Rate (-250u Stop)
- 5.13%
- Target Hit (+125u Cap)
- 45.46%
- 144-Hand Expected Hold
- 3.39u
- Table Max (6-Step Depth)
- 50u