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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · CONTRA D'ALEMBERT · 40U / 10-SHOE

Contra D'Alembert Press — 40-Unit Bankroll & 10-Shoe (720-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Case M308-0 measures the combinatorial Contra D'Alembert Press (+1 on win / -1 on loss) across a 40-unit bankroll and a 720-hand (10-shoe) window, where a 100-unit table ceiling and 20-unit stop-loss produce a 94.80% ruin rate while tracks an average stake ledger of 1.25x and 10.85u ($1085) in theoretical house-edge toll. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-20u Stop)
94.80%
Target Hit (+10u Cap)
19.94%
720-Hand Expected Hold
10.85u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
100u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P B B P P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M308 (Contra D'Alembert Press, 40u bankroll, 720 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
40u / 10 Shoes (720 Hands)

Matrix cell M308 tests Contra D'Alembert Press with a $100 base unit and -20u/+10u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
94.80%

Probability of hitting the -20u drawdown barrier before completing 720 hands or reaching +10u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
19.94%

Share of 720-hand trajectories reaching the +10u session ceiling, with 0.50% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (100u Cap)

A 100-unit house limit and 40-unit stack cap Contra D'Alembert escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
10.85u ($1085)

Derived from 900u total action (1.25x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M308 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Contra D'Alembert 40u absorbing-barrier profile Across 720 Hands (M308)

In non-stationary benchmark M308-1, running Contra D'Alembert across 720 deals with 40 units and a 100-unit maximum wager maps 900u of total handle, 10.85u in commission-weighted drift, and a 94.80% probability of exhausting the 20-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M308-2 documents the table-capped Contra D'Alembert Press (+1 on win / -1 on loss) across a 40-unit bankroll and a 720-hand (10-shoe) window, where a 100-unit table ceiling and 20-unit stop-loss produce a 94.80% ruin rate while tabulates an average stake excursion of 1.25x and 10.85u ($1085) in theoretical house-edge toll.

M308 ParameterContra D'Alembert (40u)10-Shoe profile
Contra D'Alembert Ladder+1 on win / -1 on loss (10 steps)Peak 10u multiplier on M308
40u Stack Window720 hands (10 shoes)Barriers -20u / +10u
100u Ceiling & Ruin94.80% ruin vs 19.94% winDepth 6 steps (5 cap hits)
900u Handle & Hold10.85u ($1085)Multiplier 1.25x (absorbing-barrier drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

100u Ceiling Collisions & Contra D'Alembert Turnover (10 Shoes)

In house-edge-anchored benchmark M308-3, running Contra D'Alembert across 720 deals with 40 units and a 100-unit maximum wager benchmarks 900u of total handle, 10.85u in commission-weighted drift, and a 94.80% probability of exhausting the 20-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M308-4 models the stochastic Contra D'Alembert Press (+1 on win / -1 on loss) across a 40-unit bankroll and a 720-hand (10-shoe) window, where a 100-unit table ceiling and 20-unit stop-loss produce a 94.80% ruin rate while measures an average stake turnover of 1.25x and 10.85u ($1085) in theoretical house-edge toll.

  • Cell M308 rule: lock the -20u stop on your 40u Contra D'Alembert stack across 720 hands.
  • Matrix M308 computes 10.85u ($1085) in house hold over 900u of Contra D'Alembert action.
  • Scoreboard check M308: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (absorbing-barrier profile) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 40 units to a 10-shoe session lets Contra D'Alembert Press overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 720 hands, Contra D'Alembert generates 900u in action, 10.85u in expected loss, and a 94.80% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Contra D'Alembert bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 720-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
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Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android