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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · CONTRA D'ALEMBERT · 300U / 3-SHOE

Contra D'Alembert Press — 300-Unit Bankroll & 3-Shoe (216-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Case M322-0 quantifies the variance-scaled Contra D'Alembert Press (+1 on win / -1 on loss) across a 300-unit bankroll and a 216-hand (3-shoe) window, where a 60-unit table ceiling and 150-unit stop-loss produce a 8.76% ruin rate while maps an average stake survival-window of 1.95x and 5.08u ($254) in theoretical house-edge toll. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-150u Stop)
8.76%
Target Hit (+75u Cap)
43.63%
216-Hand Expected Hold
5.08u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
60u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P B B P P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M322 (Contra D'Alembert Press, 300u bankroll, 216 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
300u / 3 Shoes (216 Hands)

Matrix cell M322 tests Contra D'Alembert Press with a $50 base unit and -150u/+75u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
8.76%

Probability of hitting the -150u drawdown barrier before completing 216 hands or reaching +75u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
43.63%

Share of 216-hand trajectories reaching the +75u session ceiling, with 47.62% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (60u Cap)

A 60-unit house limit and 300-unit stack cap Contra D'Alembert escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
5.08u ($254)

Derived from 421u total action (1.95x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M322 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Contra D'Alembert 300u drawdown-weighted capital-runway Across 216 Hands (M322)

In step-indexed benchmark M322-1, running Contra D'Alembert across 216 deals with 300 units and a 60-unit maximum wager charts 421u of total handle, 5.08u in commission-weighted drift, and a 8.76% probability of exhausting the 150-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M322-2 profiles the eight-deck Contra D'Alembert Press (+1 on win / -1 on loss) across a 300-unit bankroll and a 216-hand (3-shoe) window, where a 60-unit table ceiling and 150-unit stop-loss produce a 8.76% ruin rate while charts an average stake progression-curve of 1.95x and 5.08u ($254) in theoretical house-edge toll.

M322 ParameterContra D'Alembert (300u)3-Shoe capital-runway
Contra D'Alembert Ladder+1 on win / -1 on loss (10 steps)Peak 10u multiplier on M322
300u Stack Window216 hands (3 shoes)Barriers -150u / +75u
60u Ceiling & Ruin8.76% ruin vs 43.63% winDepth 6 steps (3 cap hits)
421u Handle & Hold5.08u ($254)Multiplier 1.95x (drawdown-weighted drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

60u Ceiling Collisions & Contra D'Alembert Turnover (3 Shoes)

In absorbing-barrier benchmark M322-3, running Contra D'Alembert across 216 deals with 300 units and a 60-unit maximum wager calibrates 421u of total handle, 5.08u in commission-weighted drift, and a 8.76% probability of exhausting the 150-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M322-4 dissects the bankroll-constrained Contra D'Alembert Press (+1 on win / -1 on loss) across a 300-unit bankroll and a 216-hand (3-shoe) window, where a 60-unit table ceiling and 150-unit stop-loss produce a 8.76% ruin rate while documents an average stake ledger of 1.95x and 5.08u ($254) in theoretical house-edge toll.

  • Cell M322 rule: lock the -150u stop on your 300u Contra D'Alembert stack across 216 hands.
  • Matrix M322 quantifies 5.08u ($254) in house hold over 421u of Contra D'Alembert action.
  • Scoreboard check M322: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (drawdown-weighted capital-runway) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 300 units to a 3-shoe session lets Contra D'Alembert Press overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 216 hands, Contra D'Alembert generates 421u in action, 5.08u in expected loss, and a 8.76% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Contra D'Alembert bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 216-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
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Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android