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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · CONTRA D'ALEMBERT · 300U / 10-SHOE

Contra D'Alembert Press — 300-Unit Bankroll & 10-Shoe (720-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Sequential profile M323-0 inspects Contra D'Alembert Press over a 10-shoe (720-hand) horizon with 300 units: finite-shoe escalation (+1 on win / -1 on loss, 10 steps) interacts with the 100-unit limit to inspects a 26.10% ruin rate and a step-indexed threshold of 1.95x. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-150u Stop)
26.10%
Target Hit (+75u Cap)
39.18%
720-Hand Expected Hold
16.93u
Table Max (7-Step Depth)
100u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M323 (Contra D'Alembert Press, 300u bankroll, 720 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
300u / 10 Shoes (720 Hands)

Matrix cell M323 tests Contra D'Alembert Press with a $100 base unit and -150u/+75u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
26.10%

Probability of hitting the -150u drawdown barrier before completing 720 hands or reaching +75u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
39.18%

Share of 720-hand trajectories reaching the +75u session ceiling, with 34.72% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
7 Steps (100u Cap)

A 100-unit house limit and 300-unit stack cap Contra D'Alembert escalation after 7 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
16.93u ($1693)

Derived from 1404u total action (1.95x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M323 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Contra D'Alembert 300u capital-bounded footprint Across 720 Hands (M323)

Under configuration M323-1, deploying Contra D'Alembert with 300 base units over 720 resolved hands (10 shoes) verifies a session-bounded ledger: hitting the 100-unit house cap after 7 adverse steps drives a 26.10% stop-loss breach rate against a 39.18% chance of reaching the +75-unit target.

Sequential profile M323-2 tabulates Contra D'Alembert Press over a 10-shoe (720-hand) horizon with 300 units: variance-scaled escalation (+1 on win / -1 on loss, 10 steps) interacts with the 100-unit limit to audits a 26.10% ruin rate and a multi-coup excursion of 1.95x.

M323 ParameterContra D'Alembert (300u)10-Shoe footprint
Contra D'Alembert Ladder+1 on win / -1 on loss (10 steps)Peak 10u multiplier on M323
300u Stack Window720 hands (10 shoes)Barriers -150u / +75u
100u Ceiling & Ruin26.10% ruin vs 39.18% winDepth 7 steps (5 cap hits)
1404u Handle & Hold16.93u ($1693)Multiplier 1.95x (capital-bounded drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

100u Ceiling Collisions & Contra D'Alembert Turnover (10 Shoes)

Under configuration M323-3, deploying Contra D'Alembert with 300 base units over 720 resolved hands (10 shoes) quantifies a step-indexed excursion: hitting the 100-unit house cap after 7 adverse steps drives a 26.10% stop-loss breach rate against a 39.18% chance of reaching the +75-unit target.

Sequential profile M323-4 charts Contra D'Alembert Press over a 10-shoe (720-hand) horizon with 300 units: eight-deck escalation (+1 on win / -1 on loss, 10 steps) interacts with the 100-unit limit to verifies a 26.10% ruin rate and a house-edge-anchored survival-window of 1.95x.

  • Cell M323 rule: lock the -150u stop on your 300u Contra D'Alembert stack across 720 hands.
  • Matrix M323 documents 16.93u ($1693) in house hold over 1404u of Contra D'Alembert action.
  • Scoreboard check M323: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (capital-bounded footprint) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 300 units to a 10-shoe session lets Contra D'Alembert Press overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 720 hands, Contra D'Alembert generates 1404u in action, 16.93u in expected loss, and a 26.10% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Contra D'Alembert bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 720-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android