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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · CONTRA D'ALEMBERT · 150U / 1-SHOE

Contra D'Alembert Press — 150-Unit Bankroll & 1-Shoe (72-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Sequential profile M316-0 charts Contra D'Alembert Press over a 1-shoe (72-hand) horizon with 150 units: house-edge-anchored escalation (+1 on win / -1 on loss, 10 steps) interacts with the 40-unit limit to computes a 6.70% ruin rate and a eight-deck volatility-band of 1.94x. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-75u Stop)
6.70%
Target Hit (+38u Cap)
43.59%
72-Hand Expected Hold
1.69u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
40u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P B P B P P B B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = =
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M316 (Contra D'Alembert Press, 150u bankroll, 72 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
150u / 1 Shoes (72 Hands)

Matrix cell M316 tests Contra D'Alembert Press with a $25 base unit and -75u/+38u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
6.70%

Probability of hitting the -75u drawdown barrier before completing 72 hands or reaching +38u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
43.59%

Share of 72-hand trajectories reaching the +38u session ceiling, with 49.71% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (40u Cap)

A 40-unit house limit and 150-unit stack cap Contra D'Alembert escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
1.69u ($42)

Derived from 140u total action (1.94x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M316 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Contra D'Alembert 150u session-bounded envelope Across 72 Hands (M316)

Under configuration M316-1, deploying Contra D'Alembert with 150 base units over 72 resolved hands (1 shoes) profiles a stochastic excursion: hitting the 40-unit house cap after 6 adverse steps drives a 6.70% stop-loss breach rate against a 43.59% chance of reaching the +38-unit target.

Sequential profile M316-2 calibrates Contra D'Alembert Press over a 1-shoe (72-hand) horizon with 150 units: sequential escalation (+1 on win / -1 on loss, 10 steps) interacts with the 40-unit limit to evaluates a 6.70% ruin rate and a finite-shoe absorption-curve of 1.94x.

M316 ParameterContra D'Alembert (150u)1-Shoe envelope
Contra D'Alembert Ladder+1 on win / -1 on loss (10 steps)Peak 10u multiplier on M316
150u Stack Window72 hands (1 shoes)Barriers -75u / +38u
40u Ceiling & Ruin6.70% ruin vs 43.59% winDepth 6 steps (1 cap hits)
140u Handle & Hold1.69u ($42)Multiplier 1.94x (session-bounded drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

40u Ceiling Collisions & Contra D'Alembert Turnover (1 Shoes)

Under configuration M316-3, deploying Contra D'Alembert with 150 base units over 72 resolved hands (1 shoes) dissects a drawdown-weighted turnover: hitting the 40-unit house cap after 6 adverse steps drives a 6.70% stop-loss breach rate against a 43.59% chance of reaching the +38-unit target.

Sequential profile M316-4 evaluates Contra D'Alembert Press over a 1-shoe (72-hand) horizon with 150 units: multi-coup escalation (+1 on win / -1 on loss, 10 steps) interacts with the 40-unit limit to inspects a 6.70% ruin rate and a stochastic trajectory of 1.94x.

  • Cell M316 rule: lock the -75u stop on your 150u Contra D'Alembert stack across 72 hands.
  • Matrix M316 measures 1.69u ($42) in house hold over 140u of Contra D'Alembert action.
  • Scoreboard check M316: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (session-bounded envelope) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 150 units to a 1-shoe session lets Contra D'Alembert Press overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 72 hands, Contra D'Alembert generates 140u in action, 1.69u in expected loss, and a 6.70% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Contra D'Alembert bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 72-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android