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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · 2-1-2 MANHATTAN · 50U / 5-SHOE

2-1-2 Manhattan Progression — 50-Unit Bankroll & 5-Shoe (360-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

When a 50-unit stack enters a 5-shoe (360-hand) session using 2-1-2 Manhattan Progression, house-edge-anchored model M410-0 inspects 454u in cumulative action and a 68.85% barrier-absorption probability before the 80-unit table maximum truncates the eight-deck turnover. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-25u Stop)
68.85%
Target Hit (+13u Cap)
27.43%
360-Hand Expected Hold
5.43u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
80u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P B B P P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M410 (2-1-2 Manhattan Progression, 50u bankroll, 360 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
50u / 5 Shoes (360 Hands)

Matrix cell M410 tests 2-1-2 Manhattan Progression with a $50 base unit and -25u/+13u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
68.85%

Probability of hitting the -25u drawdown barrier before completing 360 hands or reaching +13u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
27.43%

Share of 360-hand trajectories reaching the +13u session ceiling, with 3.72% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (80u Cap)

A 80-unit house limit and 50-unit stack cap 2-1-2 Manhattan escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
5.43u ($272)

Derived from 454u total action (1.26x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M410 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

2-1-2 Manhattan 50u combinatorial trajectory Across 360 Hands (M410)

Testing 2-1-2 Manhattan (2-1-2-3-4-5) at 50 units across 360 coups in cell M410-1 verifies a 68.85% chance of striking the -25-unit stop-loss, while the 80-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 5.43u ($272) in expected erosion.

When a 50-unit stack enters a 5-shoe (360-hand) session using 2-1-2 Manhattan Progression, sequential model M410-2 tabulates 454u in cumulative action and a 68.85% barrier-absorption probability before the 80-unit table maximum truncates the finite-shoe progression-curve.

M410 Parameter2-1-2 Manhattan (50u)5-Shoe trajectory
2-1-2 Manhattan Ladder2-1-2-3-4-5 (6 steps)Peak 5u multiplier on M410
50u Stack Window360 hands (5 shoes)Barriers -25u / +13u
80u Ceiling & Ruin68.85% ruin vs 27.43% winDepth 6 steps (2 cap hits)
454u Handle & Hold5.43u ($272)Multiplier 1.26x (combinatorial drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

80u Ceiling Collisions & 2-1-2 Manhattan Turnover (5 Shoes)

Testing 2-1-2 Manhattan (2-1-2-3-4-5) at 50 units across 360 coups in cell M410-3 quantifies a 68.85% chance of striking the -25-unit stop-loss, while the 80-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 5.43u ($272) in expected erosion.

When a 50-unit stack enters a 5-shoe (360-hand) session using 2-1-2 Manhattan Progression, multi-coup model M410-4 charts 454u in cumulative action and a 68.85% barrier-absorption probability before the 80-unit table maximum truncates the stochastic drawdown-slope.

  • Cell M410 rule: lock the -25u stop on your 50u 2-1-2 Manhattan stack across 360 hands.
  • Matrix M410 computes 5.43u ($272) in house hold over 454u of 2-1-2 Manhattan action.
  • Scoreboard check M410: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (combinatorial trajectory) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 50 units to a 5-shoe session lets 2-1-2 Manhattan Progression overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 360 hands, 2-1-2 Manhattan generates 454u in action, 5.43u in expected loss, and a 68.85% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell 2-1-2 Manhattan bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 360-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android