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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · 1-3-2-6 VS 1-2-3-5

1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence vs. 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder — 9-Hand Dragon Streak Shoe under 5% Banker Commission (75-Hand Stress Test)

Under 5% Comm Streak (1.0579% effective edge), capital-bounded stress run S410-0 over 75 hands and a 80-unit treasury tracks a -36u drawdown (9.55% ruin) for 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence against -26u (6.67% ruin) for 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder inside a 60-unit cap. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

1-3-2-6 Ruin Rate
9.55%
1-2-3-5 Ruin Rate
6.67%
Peak Trough (9-Run)
-36u
5% Comm Streak House Edge
1.0579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B B B P P P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S410 (1-3-2-6 vs 1-2-3-5, 9-Hand Dragon Streak Shoe under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
1-3-2-6 vs 1-2-3-5 (5% Comm Streak)

Stress cell S410 compares 1-3-2-6 against 1-2-3-5 over 75 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
9.55% vs 6.67%

Probability of exhausting the 80-unit bankroll under a 60-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
1.32u vs 1.16u

Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 75 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-36u vs -26u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 9-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
6 Ties · 0.63u Drag

Reflects 8.4% tie frequency (6 pushes) and 0.63u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S410 · STREAK SHOE PROFILE

1-3-2-6 vs. 1-2-3-5 step-indexed cycle-span (75 Hands · S410)

In sequential comparative trial S410-1, running 1-3-2-6 against 1-2-3-5 for 75 hands of 5% Comm Streak (streak) on 80 units calibrates 1.32u vs 1.16u in expected toll and 9.55% vs 6.67% ruin under a 60-unit pit limit.

Under 5% Comm Streak (1.0579% effective edge), bankroll-constrained stress run S410-2 over 75 hands and a 80-unit treasury tabulates a -36u drawdown (9.55% ruin) for 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence against -26u (6.67% ruin) for 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder inside a 60-unit cap.

S410 cycle-span1-3-2-61-2-3-5
1-3-2-6 / 1-2-3-5 Rule1-3-2-61-2-3-5
75-Hand Ruin (80u)9.55%6.67%
5% Comm Streak Hold (1.0579%)1.32u1.16u
9-Run Trough (60u Cap)-36u-26u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

5% Comm Streak Vigorish (0.63u) & 8.4% Tie Push Audit (S410)

In stochastic comparative trial S410-3, running 1-3-2-6 against 1-2-3-5 for 75 hands of 5% Comm Streak (streak) on 80 units models 1.32u vs 1.16u in expected toll and 9.55% vs 6.67% ruin under a 60-unit pit limit.

Under 5% Comm Streak (1.0579% effective edge), absorbing-barrier stress run S410-4 over 75 hands and a 80-unit treasury measures a -36u drawdown (9.55% ruin) for 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence against -26u (6.67% ruin) for 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder inside a 60-unit cap.

  • Trial S410: set a 80u stop before running 1-3-2-6 vs 1-2-3-5 over 75 hands.
  • Scenario S410 profiles 0.63u in commission drag and 6 tie pushes (8.4% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S410: derived road red marks step-indexed column repetition and blue marks a structural break (cycle-span), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from 1-2-3-5 to 1-3-2-6 during 9-Hand Dragon Streak Shoe under 5% Banker Commission neutralizes the 1.0579% house edge.
TruthOver 75 hands on a 80-unit stack, 1-3-2-6 carries 1.32u expected loss (9.55% ruin) vs 1.16u (6.67% ruin) for 1-2-3-5.
MythDuring a 9-hand streak sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android