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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · 1-3-2-6 · 500U / 5-SHOE

1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence — 500-Unit Bankroll & 5-Shoe (360-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Within combinatorial horizon M200-0, a 500-unit treasury backing 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence for 360 hands (5 shoes) faces a 80-unit bet cap that documents 7.41% ruin exposure, 45.23% target attainment at +125u, and 47.36% time-limit expiration. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-250u Stop)
7.41%
Target Hit (+125u Cap)
45.23%
360-Hand Expected Hold
7.94u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
80u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P B B P P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M200 (1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence, 500u bankroll, 360 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
500u / 5 Shoes (360 Hands)

Matrix cell M200 tests 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence with a $50 base unit and -250u/+125u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
7.41%

Probability of hitting the -250u drawdown barrier before completing 360 hands or reaching +125u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
45.23%

Share of 360-hand trajectories reaching the +125u session ceiling, with 47.36% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (80u Cap)

A 80-unit house limit and 500-unit stack cap 1-3-2-6 escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
7.94u ($397)

Derived from 670u total action (1.86x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M200 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

1-3-2-6 500u variance-scaled excursion Across 360 Hands (M200)

Horizon matrix M200-1 benchmarks how 1-3-2-6 (1-3-2-6) behaves inside a 500-unit session budget across 360 coups, showing that a 80-unit pit limit and 250-unit floor generate a 7.41% drawdown-trigger rate alongside 7.94u in expected 8-deck vigorish.

Within table-capped horizon M200-2, a 500-unit treasury backing 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence for 360 hands (5 shoes) faces a 80-unit bet cap that models 7.41% ruin exposure, 45.23% target attainment at +125u, and 47.36% time-limit expiration.

M200 Parameter1-3-2-6 (500u)5-Shoe excursion
1-3-2-6 Ladder1-3-2-6 (4 steps)Peak 6u multiplier on M200
500u Stack Window360 hands (5 shoes)Barriers -250u / +125u
80u Ceiling & Ruin7.41% ruin vs 45.23% winDepth 6 steps (2 cap hits)
670u Handle & Hold7.94u ($397)Multiplier 1.86x (variance-scaled drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

80u Ceiling Collisions & 1-3-2-6 Turnover (5 Shoes)

Horizon matrix M200-3 computes how 1-3-2-6 (1-3-2-6) behaves inside a 500-unit session budget across 360 coups, showing that a 80-unit pit limit and 250-unit floor generate a 7.41% drawdown-trigger rate alongside 7.94u in expected 8-deck vigorish.

Within stochastic horizon M200-4, a 500-unit treasury backing 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence for 360 hands (5 shoes) faces a 80-unit bet cap that inspects 7.41% ruin exposure, 45.23% target attainment at +125u, and 47.36% time-limit expiration.

  • Cell M200 rule: lock the -250u stop on your 500u 1-3-2-6 stack across 360 hands.
  • Matrix M200 dissects 7.94u ($397) in house hold over 670u of 1-3-2-6 action.
  • Scoreboard check M200: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (variance-scaled excursion) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 500 units to a 5-shoe session lets 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 360 hands, 1-3-2-6 generates 670u in action, 7.94u in expected loss, and a 7.41% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell 1-3-2-6 bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 360-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android