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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · 1-3-2-6 · 200U / 2-SHOE

1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence — 200-Unit Bankroll & 2-Shoe (144-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Across 144 eight-deck hands (2 shoes), eight-deck simulation M194-0 for 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence on a 200-unit bankroll benchmarks a 7.78% risk-of-ruin figure, profiles 1 ceiling-collision events against the 50-unit cap and a 47.50% mid-corridor finish rate. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-100u Stop)
7.78%
Target Hit (+50u Cap)
44.72%
144-Hand Expected Hold
3.18u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
50u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B P B P B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M194 (1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence, 200u bankroll, 144 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
200u / 2 Shoes (144 Hands)

Matrix cell M194 tests 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence with a $25 base unit and -100u/+50u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
7.78%

Probability of hitting the -100u drawdown barrier before completing 144 hands or reaching +50u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
44.72%

Share of 144-hand trajectories reaching the +50u session ceiling, with 47.50% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (50u Cap)

A 50-unit house limit and 200-unit stack cap 1-3-2-6 escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
3.18u ($80)

Derived from 268u total action (1.86x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M194 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

1-3-2-6 200u absorbing-barrier survival-window Across 144 Hands (M194)

Cell M194-1 models the absorbing-barrier footprint of a 200-unit 1-3-2-6 plan over 144 hands: because each hand remains independent at 1.058% Banker edge, scaling stakes toward the 50-unit ceiling elevates total turnover to 268u and sets ruin at 7.78%.

Across 144 eight-deck hands (2 shoes), bankroll-constrained simulation M194-2 for 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence on a 200-unit bankroll computes a 7.78% risk-of-ruin figure, benchmarks 1 ceiling-collision events against the 50-unit cap and a 47.50% mid-corridor finish rate.

M194 Parameter1-3-2-6 (200u)2-Shoe survival-window
1-3-2-6 Ladder1-3-2-6 (4 steps)Peak 6u multiplier on M194
200u Stack Window144 hands (2 shoes)Barriers -100u / +50u
50u Ceiling & Ruin7.78% ruin vs 44.72% winDepth 6 steps (1 cap hits)
268u Handle & Hold3.18u ($80)Multiplier 1.86x (absorbing-barrier drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

50u Ceiling Collisions & 1-3-2-6 Turnover (2 Shoes)

Cell M194-3 inspects the capital-bounded cadence of a 200-unit 1-3-2-6 plan over 144 hands: because each hand remains independent at 1.058% Banker edge, scaling stakes toward the 50-unit ceiling elevates total turnover to 268u and sets ruin at 7.78%.

Across 144 eight-deck hands (2 shoes), discrete-time simulation M194-4 for 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence on a 200-unit bankroll verifies a 7.78% risk-of-ruin figure, calibrates 1 ceiling-collision events against the 50-unit cap and a 47.50% mid-corridor finish rate.

  • Cell M194 rule: lock the -100u stop on your 200u 1-3-2-6 stack across 144 hands.
  • Matrix M194 models 3.18u ($80) in house hold over 268u of 1-3-2-6 action.
  • Scoreboard check M194: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (absorbing-barrier survival-window) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 200 units to a 2-shoe session lets 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 144 hands, 1-3-2-6 generates 268u in action, 3.18u in expected loss, and a 7.78% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell 1-3-2-6 bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 144-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android