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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · 1-2-3-5 · 75U / 3-SHOE

1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder — 75-Unit Bankroll & 3-Shoe (216-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Across 216 eight-deck hands (3 shoes), stochastic simulation M212-0 for 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder on a 75-unit bankroll charts a 29.04% risk-of-ruin figure, computes 1 ceiling-collision events against the 60-unit cap and a 33.01% mid-corridor finish rate. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-38u Stop)
29.04%
Target Hit (+19u Cap)
37.95%
216-Hand Expected Hold
3.45u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
60u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B P B P P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M212 (1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, 75u bankroll, 216 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
75u / 3 Shoes (216 Hands)

Matrix cell M212 tests 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder with a $50 base unit and -38u/+19u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
29.04%

Probability of hitting the -38u drawdown barrier before completing 216 hands or reaching +19u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
37.95%

Share of 216-hand trajectories reaching the +19u session ceiling, with 33.01% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (60u Cap)

A 60-unit house limit and 75-unit stack cap 1-2-3-5 escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
3.45u ($173)

Derived from 294u total action (1.36x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M212 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

1-2-3-5 75u stochastic escalation Across 216 Hands (M212)

Cell M212-1 profiles the sequential envelope of a 75-unit 1-2-3-5 plan over 216 hands: because each hand remains independent at 1.058% Banker edge, scaling stakes toward the 60-unit ceiling elevates total turnover to 294u and sets ruin at 29.04%.

Across 216 eight-deck hands (3 shoes), drawdown-weighted simulation M212-2 for 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder on a 75-unit bankroll calibrates a 29.04% risk-of-ruin figure, evaluates 1 ceiling-collision events against the 60-unit cap and a 33.01% mid-corridor finish rate.

M212 Parameter1-2-3-5 (75u)3-Shoe escalation
1-2-3-5 Ladder1-2-3-5 (4 steps)Peak 5u multiplier on M212
75u Stack Window216 hands (3 shoes)Barriers -38u / +19u
60u Ceiling & Ruin29.04% ruin vs 37.95% winDepth 6 steps (1 cap hits)
294u Handle & Hold3.45u ($173)Multiplier 1.36x (stochastic drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

60u Ceiling Collisions & 1-2-3-5 Turnover (3 Shoes)

Cell M212-3 dissects the multi-coup trajectory of a 75-unit 1-2-3-5 plan over 216 hands: because each hand remains independent at 1.058% Banker edge, scaling stakes toward the 60-unit ceiling elevates total turnover to 294u and sets ruin at 29.04%.

Across 216 eight-deck hands (3 shoes), finite-shoe simulation M212-4 for 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder on a 75-unit bankroll evaluates a 29.04% risk-of-ruin figure, inspects 1 ceiling-collision events against the 60-unit cap and a 33.01% mid-corridor finish rate.

  • Cell M212 rule: lock the -38u stop on your 75u 1-2-3-5 stack across 216 hands.
  • Matrix M212 evaluates 3.45u ($173) in house hold over 294u of 1-2-3-5 action.
  • Scoreboard check M212: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (stochastic escalation) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 75 units to a 3-shoe session lets 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 216 hands, 1-2-3-5 generates 294u in action, 3.45u in expected loss, and a 29.04% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell 1-2-3-5 bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 216-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android