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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · 1-2-3-5 · 75U / 1-SHOE

1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder — 75-Unit Bankroll & 1-Shoe (72-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Within drawdown-weighted horizon M211-0, a 75-unit treasury backing 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder for 72 hands (1 shoes) faces a 40-unit bet cap that dissects 10.79% ruin exposure, 42.65% target attainment at +19u, and 46.56% time-limit expiration. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-38u Stop)
10.79%
Target Hit (+19u Cap)
42.65%
72-Hand Expected Hold
1.15u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
40u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M211 (1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, 75u bankroll, 72 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
75u / 1 Shoes (72 Hands)

Matrix cell M211 tests 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder with a $25 base unit and -38u/+19u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
10.79%

Probability of hitting the -38u drawdown barrier before completing 72 hands or reaching +19u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
42.65%

Share of 72-hand trajectories reaching the +19u session ceiling, with 46.56% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (40u Cap)

A 40-unit house limit and 75-unit stack cap 1-2-3-5 escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
1.15u ($29)

Derived from 98u total action (1.36x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M211 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

1-2-3-5 75u bankroll-constrained stake-velocity Across 72 Hands (M211)

Horizon matrix M211-1 evaluates how 1-2-3-5 (1-2-3-5) behaves inside a 75-unit session budget across 72 coups, showing that a 40-unit pit limit and 38-unit floor generate a 10.79% drawdown-trigger rate alongside 1.15u in expected 8-deck vigorish.

Within finite-shoe horizon M211-2, a 75-unit treasury backing 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder for 72 hands (1 shoes) faces a 40-unit bet cap that audits 10.79% ruin exposure, 42.65% target attainment at +19u, and 46.56% time-limit expiration.

M211 Parameter1-2-3-5 (75u)1-Shoe stake-velocity
1-2-3-5 Ladder1-2-3-5 (4 steps)Peak 5u multiplier on M211
75u Stack Window72 hands (1 shoes)Barriers -38u / +19u
40u Ceiling & Ruin10.79% ruin vs 42.65% winDepth 6 steps (1 cap hits)
98u Handle & Hold1.15u ($29)Multiplier 1.36x (bankroll-constrained drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

40u Ceiling Collisions & 1-2-3-5 Turnover (1 Shoes)

Horizon matrix M211-3 tracks how 1-2-3-5 (1-2-3-5) behaves inside a 75-unit session budget across 72 coups, showing that a 40-unit pit limit and 38-unit floor generate a 10.79% drawdown-trigger rate alongside 1.15u in expected 8-deck vigorish.

Within variance-scaled horizon M211-4, a 75-unit treasury backing 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder for 72 hands (1 shoes) faces a 40-unit bet cap that measures 10.79% ruin exposure, 42.65% target attainment at +19u, and 46.56% time-limit expiration.

  • Cell M211 rule: lock the -38u stop on your 75u 1-2-3-5 stack across 72 hands.
  • Matrix M211 models 1.15u ($29) in house hold over 98u of 1-2-3-5 action.
  • Scoreboard check M211: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (bankroll-constrained stake-velocity) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 75 units to a 1-shoe session lets 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 72 hands, 1-2-3-5 generates 98u in action, 1.15u in expected loss, and a 10.79% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell 1-2-3-5 bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 72-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android