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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · 1-2-3-5 · 50U / 5-SHOE

1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder — 50-Unit Bankroll & 5-Shoe (360-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

When a 50-unit stack enters a 5-shoe (360-hand) session using 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, finite-shoe model M210-0 tracks 446u in cumulative action and a 68.53% barrier-absorption probability before the 80-unit table maximum truncates the step-indexed decay-rate. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-25u Stop)
68.53%
Target Hit (+13u Cap)
27.52%
360-Hand Expected Hold
5.24u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
80u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P B B P P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M210 (1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, 50u bankroll, 360 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
50u / 5 Shoes (360 Hands)

Matrix cell M210 tests 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder with a $50 base unit and -25u/+13u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
68.53%

Probability of hitting the -25u drawdown barrier before completing 360 hands or reaching +13u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
27.52%

Share of 360-hand trajectories reaching the +13u session ceiling, with 3.95% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (80u Cap)

A 80-unit house limit and 50-unit stack cap 1-2-3-5 escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
5.24u ($262)

Derived from 446u total action (1.24x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M210 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

1-2-3-5 50u sequential cadence Across 360 Hands (M210)

Testing 1-2-3-5 (1-2-3-5) at 50 units across 360 coups in cell M210-1 measures a 68.53% chance of striking the -25-unit stop-loss, while the 80-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 5.24u ($262) in expected erosion.

When a 50-unit stack enters a 5-shoe (360-hand) session using 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, variance-scaled model M210-2 maps 446u in cumulative action and a 68.53% barrier-absorption probability before the 80-unit table maximum truncates the multi-coup ledger.

M210 Parameter1-2-3-5 (50u)5-Shoe cadence
1-2-3-5 Ladder1-2-3-5 (4 steps)Peak 5u multiplier on M210
50u Stack Window360 hands (5 shoes)Barriers -25u / +13u
80u Ceiling & Ruin68.53% ruin vs 27.52% winDepth 6 steps (2 cap hits)
446u Handle & Hold5.24u ($262)Multiplier 1.24x (sequential drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

80u Ceiling Collisions & 1-2-3-5 Turnover (5 Shoes)

Testing 1-2-3-5 (1-2-3-5) at 50 units across 360 coups in cell M210-3 documents a 68.53% chance of striking the -25-unit stop-loss, while the 80-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 5.24u ($262) in expected erosion.

When a 50-unit stack enters a 5-shoe (360-hand) session using 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, eight-deck model M210-4 benchmarks 446u in cumulative action and a 68.53% barrier-absorption probability before the 80-unit table maximum truncates the house-edge-anchored volatility-band.

  • Cell M210 rule: lock the -25u stop on your 50u 1-2-3-5 stack across 360 hands.
  • Matrix M210 profiles 5.24u ($262) in house hold over 446u of 1-2-3-5 action.
  • Scoreboard check M210: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (sequential cadence) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 50 units to a 5-shoe session lets 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 360 hands, 1-2-3-5 generates 446u in action, 5.24u in expected loss, and a 68.53% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell 1-2-3-5 bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 360-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android