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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · 1-2-3-5 · 500U / 2-SHOE

1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder — 500-Unit Bankroll & 2-Shoe (144-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

When a 500-unit stack enters a 2-shoe (144-hand) session using 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, asymmetric model M224-0 tabulates 251u in cumulative action and a 4.16% barrier-absorption probability before the 50-unit table maximum truncates the session-bounded absorption-curve. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-250u Stop)
4.16%
Target Hit (+125u Cap)
45.73%
144-Hand Expected Hold
2.95u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
50u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P B B P P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M224 (1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, 500u bankroll, 144 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
500u / 2 Shoes (144 Hands)

Matrix cell M224 tests 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder with a $25 base unit and -250u/+125u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
4.16%

Probability of hitting the -250u drawdown barrier before completing 144 hands or reaching +125u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
45.73%

Share of 144-hand trajectories reaching the +125u session ceiling, with 50.11% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (50u Cap)

A 50-unit house limit and 500-unit stack cap 1-2-3-5 escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
2.95u ($74)

Derived from 251u total action (1.74x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M224 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

1-2-3-5 500u commission-adjusted envelope Across 144 Hands (M224)

Testing 1-2-3-5 (1-2-3-5) at 500 units across 144 coups in cell M224-1 quantifies a 4.16% chance of striking the -250-unit stop-loss, while the 50-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 2.95u ($74) in expected erosion.

When a 500-unit stack enters a 2-shoe (144-hand) session using 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, non-stationary model M224-2 charts 251u in cumulative action and a 4.16% barrier-absorption probability before the 50-unit table maximum truncates the sequential trajectory.

M224 Parameter1-2-3-5 (500u)2-Shoe envelope
1-2-3-5 Ladder1-2-3-5 (4 steps)Peak 5u multiplier on M224
500u Stack Window144 hands (2 shoes)Barriers -250u / +125u
50u Ceiling & Ruin4.16% ruin vs 45.73% winDepth 6 steps (1 cap hits)
251u Handle & Hold2.95u ($74)Multiplier 1.74x (commission-adjusted drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

50u Ceiling Collisions & 1-2-3-5 Turnover (2 Shoes)

Testing 1-2-3-5 (1-2-3-5) at 500 units across 144 coups in cell M224-3 profiles a 4.16% chance of striking the -250-unit stop-loss, while the 50-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 2.95u ($74) in expected erosion.

When a 500-unit stack enters a 2-shoe (144-hand) session using 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, house-edge-anchored model M224-4 calibrates 251u in cumulative action and a 4.16% barrier-absorption probability before the 50-unit table maximum truncates the non-stationary dispersion.

  • Cell M224 rule: lock the -250u stop on your 500u 1-2-3-5 stack across 144 hands.
  • Matrix M224 audits 2.95u ($74) in house hold over 251u of 1-2-3-5 action.
  • Scoreboard check M224: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (commission-adjusted envelope) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 500 units to a 2-shoe session lets 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 144 hands, 1-2-3-5 generates 251u in action, 2.95u in expected loss, and a 4.16% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell 1-2-3-5 bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 144-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android