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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · 1-2-3-5 · 300U / 3-SHOE

1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder — 300-Unit Bankroll & 3-Shoe (216-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Case M222-0 evaluates the house-edge-anchored 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder (1-2-3-5) across a 300-unit bankroll and a 216-hand (3-shoe) window, where a 60-unit table ceiling and 150-unit stop-loss produce a 7.45% ruin rate while models an average stake capital-runway of 1.74x and 4.42u ($221) in theoretical house-edge toll. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-150u Stop)
7.45%
Target Hit (+75u Cap)
43.99%
216-Hand Expected Hold
4.42u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
60u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B P B P B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M222 (1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, 300u bankroll, 216 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
300u / 3 Shoes (216 Hands)

Matrix cell M222 tests 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder with a $50 base unit and -150u/+75u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
7.45%

Probability of hitting the -150u drawdown barrier before completing 216 hands or reaching +75u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
43.99%

Share of 216-hand trajectories reaching the +75u session ceiling, with 48.56% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (60u Cap)

A 60-unit house limit and 300-unit stack cap 1-2-3-5 escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
4.42u ($221)

Derived from 376u total action (1.74x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M222 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

1-2-3-5 300u asymmetric distribution Across 216 Hands (M222)

In stochastic benchmark M222-1, running 1-2-3-5 across 216 deals with 300 units and a 60-unit maximum wager audits 376u of total handle, 4.42u in commission-weighted drift, and a 7.45% probability of exhausting the 150-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M222-2 tracks the sequential 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder (1-2-3-5) across a 300-unit bankroll and a 216-hand (3-shoe) window, where a 60-unit table ceiling and 150-unit stop-loss produce a 7.45% ruin rate while dissects an average stake absorption-curve of 1.74x and 4.42u ($221) in theoretical house-edge toll.

M222 Parameter1-2-3-5 (300u)3-Shoe distribution
1-2-3-5 Ladder1-2-3-5 (4 steps)Peak 5u multiplier on M222
300u Stack Window216 hands (3 shoes)Barriers -150u / +75u
60u Ceiling & Ruin7.45% ruin vs 43.99% winDepth 6 steps (1 cap hits)
376u Handle & Hold4.42u ($221)Multiplier 1.74x (asymmetric drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

60u Ceiling Collisions & 1-2-3-5 Turnover (3 Shoes)

In drawdown-weighted benchmark M222-3, running 1-2-3-5 across 216 deals with 300 units and a 60-unit maximum wager measures 376u of total handle, 4.42u in commission-weighted drift, and a 7.45% probability of exhausting the 150-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M222-4 maps the multi-coup 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder (1-2-3-5) across a 300-unit bankroll and a 216-hand (3-shoe) window, where a 60-unit table ceiling and 150-unit stop-loss produce a 7.45% ruin rate while computes an average stake stake-velocity of 1.74x and 4.42u ($221) in theoretical house-edge toll.

  • Cell M222 rule: lock the -150u stop on your 300u 1-2-3-5 stack across 216 hands.
  • Matrix M222 calibrates 4.42u ($221) in house hold over 376u of 1-2-3-5 action.
  • Scoreboard check M222: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (asymmetric distribution) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 300 units to a 3-shoe session lets 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 216 hands, 1-2-3-5 generates 376u in action, 4.42u in expected loss, and a 7.45% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell 1-2-3-5 bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 216-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android