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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · 1-2-3-5 · 300U / 3-SHOE
1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder — 300-Unit Bankroll & 3-Shoe (216-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix
Case M222-0 evaluates the house-edge-anchored 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder (1-2-3-5) across a 300-unit bankroll and a 216-hand (3-shoe) window, where a 60-unit table ceiling and 150-unit stop-loss produce a 7.45% ruin rate while models an average stake capital-runway of 1.74x and 4.42u ($221) in theoretical house-edge toll. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.
- Ruin Rate (-150u Stop)
- 7.45%
- Target Hit (+75u Cap)
- 43.99%
- 216-Hand Expected Hold
- 4.42u
- Table Max (6-Step Depth)
- 60u