Skip to main content
Baccarat Smart
  1. Home
  2. Combinatorial Math & Odds Hub
  3. 1-2-3-5 300u 1-Shoe Matrix
STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · 1-2-3-5 · 300U / 1-SHOE

1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder — 300-Unit Bankroll & 1-Shoe (72-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

For a 300-unit roll spanning 72 hands (1 shoes), 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder (1-2-3-5) measures a sequential decay-rate under matrix M221-0, where the 40-unit table roof and -150u/+75u barriers yield 2.61% ruin versus 44.94% upside completion. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-150u Stop)
2.61%
Target Hit (+75u Cap)
44.94%
72-Hand Expected Hold
1.47u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
40u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P B P B P B B P P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M221 (1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, 300u bankroll, 72 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
300u / 1 Shoes (72 Hands)

Matrix cell M221 tests 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder with a $25 base unit and -150u/+75u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
2.61%

Probability of hitting the -150u drawdown barrier before completing 72 hands or reaching +75u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
44.94%

Share of 72-hand trajectories reaching the +75u session ceiling, with 52.46% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (40u Cap)

A 40-unit house limit and 300-unit stack cap 1-2-3-5 escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
1.47u ($37)

Derived from 125u total action (1.74x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M221 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

1-2-3-5 300u session-bounded ledger Across 72 Hands (M221)

Combinatorial ledger M221-1 maps 1-2-3-5 (1-2-3-5) at 300 units and 72 hands (1 shoes), proving that a 40-unit table ceiling and 1.74x average bet multiplier yield 2.61% ruin probability and 1.47u in theoretical house hold.

For a 300-unit roll spanning 72 hands (1 shoes), 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder (1-2-3-5) documents a multi-coup threshold under matrix M221-2, where the 40-unit table roof and -150u/+75u barriers yield 2.61% ruin versus 44.94% upside completion.

M221 Parameter1-2-3-5 (300u)1-Shoe ledger
1-2-3-5 Ladder1-2-3-5 (4 steps)Peak 5u multiplier on M221
300u Stack Window72 hands (1 shoes)Barriers -150u / +75u
40u Ceiling & Ruin2.61% ruin vs 44.94% winDepth 6 steps (1 cap hits)
125u Handle & Hold1.47u ($37)Multiplier 1.74x (session-bounded drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

40u Ceiling Collisions & 1-2-3-5 Turnover (1 Shoes)

Combinatorial ledger M221-3 benchmarks 1-2-3-5 (1-2-3-5) at 300 units and 72 hands (1 shoes), proving that a 40-unit table ceiling and 1.74x average bet multiplier yield 2.61% ruin probability and 1.47u in theoretical house hold.

For a 300-unit roll spanning 72 hands (1 shoes), 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder (1-2-3-5) models a session-bounded footprint under matrix M221-4, where the 40-unit table roof and -150u/+75u barriers yield 2.61% ruin versus 44.94% upside completion.

  • Cell M221 rule: lock the -150u stop on your 300u 1-2-3-5 stack across 72 hands.
  • Matrix M221 documents 1.47u ($37) in house hold over 125u of 1-2-3-5 action.
  • Scoreboard check M221: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (session-bounded ledger) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 300 units to a 1-shoe session lets 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 72 hands, 1-2-3-5 generates 125u in action, 1.47u in expected loss, and a 2.61% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell 1-2-3-5 bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 72-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android