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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · 1-2-3-5 · 300U / 10-SHOE

1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder — 300-Unit Bankroll & 10-Shoe (720-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Sequential profile M223-0 profiles 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder over a 10-shoe (720-hand) horizon with 300 units: non-stationary escalation (1-2-3-5, 4 steps) interacts with the 100-unit limit to quantifies a 23.46% ruin rate and a non-stationary capital-runway of 1.74x. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-150u Stop)
23.46%
Target Hit (+75u Cap)
39.92%
720-Hand Expected Hold
14.71u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
100u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B B P P B B P P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M223 (1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, 300u bankroll, 720 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
300u / 10 Shoes (720 Hands)

Matrix cell M223 tests 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder with a $100 base unit and -150u/+75u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
23.46%

Probability of hitting the -150u drawdown barrier before completing 720 hands or reaching +75u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
39.92%

Share of 720-hand trajectories reaching the +75u session ceiling, with 36.62% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (100u Cap)

A 100-unit house limit and 300-unit stack cap 1-2-3-5 escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
14.71u ($1471)

Derived from 1253u total action (1.74x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M223 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

1-2-3-5 300u finite-shoe excursion Across 720 Hands (M223)

Under configuration M223-1, deploying 1-2-3-5 with 300 base units over 720 resolved hands (10 shoes) calibrates a table-capped stake-velocity: hitting the 100-unit house cap after 6 adverse steps drives a 23.46% stop-loss breach rate against a 39.92% chance of reaching the +75-unit target.

Sequential profile M223-2 dissects 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder over a 10-shoe (720-hand) horizon with 300 units: house-edge-anchored escalation (1-2-3-5, 4 steps) interacts with the 100-unit limit to maps a 23.46% ruin rate and a discrete-time envelope of 1.74x.

M223 Parameter1-2-3-5 (300u)10-Shoe excursion
1-2-3-5 Ladder1-2-3-5 (4 steps)Peak 5u multiplier on M223
300u Stack Window720 hands (10 shoes)Barriers -150u / +75u
100u Ceiling & Ruin23.46% ruin vs 39.92% winDepth 6 steps (3 cap hits)
1253u Handle & Hold14.71u ($1471)Multiplier 1.74x (finite-shoe drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

100u Ceiling Collisions & 1-2-3-5 Turnover (10 Shoes)

Under configuration M223-3, deploying 1-2-3-5 with 300 base units over 720 resolved hands (10 shoes) evaluates a stochastic drawdown-slope: hitting the 100-unit house cap after 6 adverse steps drives a 23.46% stop-loss breach rate against a 39.92% chance of reaching the +75-unit target.

Sequential profile M223-4 audits 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder over a 10-shoe (720-hand) horizon with 300 units: sequential escalation (1-2-3-5, 4 steps) interacts with the 100-unit limit to charts a 23.46% ruin rate and a eight-deck boundary of 1.74x.

  • Cell M223 rule: lock the -150u stop on your 300u 1-2-3-5 stack across 720 hands.
  • Matrix M223 computes 14.71u ($1471) in house hold over 1253u of 1-2-3-5 action.
  • Scoreboard check M223: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (finite-shoe excursion) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 300 units to a 10-shoe session lets 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 720 hands, 1-2-3-5 generates 1253u in action, 14.71u in expected loss, and a 23.46% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell 1-2-3-5 bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 720-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android