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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · 1-2-3-5 · 20U / 3-SHOE

1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder — 20-Unit Bankroll & 3-Shoe (216-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Sequential profile M202-0 inspects 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder over a 3-shoe (216-hand) horizon with 20 units: sequential escalation (1-2-3-5, 4 steps) interacts with the 60-unit limit to inspects a 94.80% ruin rate and a stochastic stake-velocity of 1.10x. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-10u Stop)
94.80%
Target Hit (+6u Cap)
16.68%
216-Hand Expected Hold
2.79u
Table Max (5-Step Depth)
60u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P B B B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M202 (1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, 20u bankroll, 216 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
20u / 3 Shoes (216 Hands)

Matrix cell M202 tests 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder with a $50 base unit and -10u/+6u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
94.80%

Probability of hitting the -10u drawdown barrier before completing 216 hands or reaching +6u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
16.68%

Share of 216-hand trajectories reaching the +6u session ceiling, with 0.50% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
5 Steps (60u Cap)

A 60-unit house limit and 20-unit stack cap 1-2-3-5 escalation after 5 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
2.79u ($140)

Derived from 238u total action (1.10x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M202 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

1-2-3-5 20u session-bounded turnover Across 216 Hands (M202)

Under configuration M202-1, deploying 1-2-3-5 with 20 base units over 216 resolved hands (3 shoes) verifies a drawdown-weighted survival-window: hitting the 60-unit house cap after 5 adverse steps drives a 94.80% stop-loss breach rate against a 16.68% chance of reaching the +6-unit target.

Sequential profile M202-2 tabulates 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder over a 3-shoe (216-hand) horizon with 20 units: multi-coup escalation (1-2-3-5, 4 steps) interacts with the 60-unit limit to audits a 94.80% ruin rate and a combinatorial cycle-span of 1.10x.

M202 Parameter1-2-3-5 (20u)3-Shoe turnover
1-2-3-5 Ladder1-2-3-5 (4 steps)Peak 5u multiplier on M202
20u Stack Window216 hands (3 shoes)Barriers -10u / +6u
60u Ceiling & Ruin94.80% ruin vs 16.68% winDepth 5 steps (1 cap hits)
238u Handle & Hold2.79u ($140)Multiplier 1.10x (session-bounded drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

60u Ceiling Collisions & 1-2-3-5 Turnover (3 Shoes)

Under configuration M202-3, deploying 1-2-3-5 with 20 base units over 216 resolved hands (3 shoes) quantifies a finite-shoe progression-curve: hitting the 60-unit house cap after 5 adverse steps drives a 94.80% stop-loss breach rate against a 16.68% chance of reaching the +6-unit target.

Sequential profile M202-4 charts 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder over a 3-shoe (216-hand) horizon with 20 units: session-bounded escalation (1-2-3-5, 4 steps) interacts with the 60-unit limit to verifies a 94.80% ruin rate and a capital-bounded distribution of 1.10x.

  • Cell M202 rule: lock the -10u stop on your 20u 1-2-3-5 stack across 216 hands.
  • Matrix M202 tracks 2.79u ($140) in house hold over 238u of 1-2-3-5 action.
  • Scoreboard check M202: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (session-bounded turnover) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 20 units to a 3-shoe session lets 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 216 hands, 1-2-3-5 generates 238u in action, 2.79u in expected loss, and a 94.80% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell 1-2-3-5 bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 216-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android