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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · 1-2-3-5 · 200U / 5-SHOE

1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder — 200-Unit Bankroll & 5-Shoe (360-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Under multi-coup boundary rules in M220-0, pairing 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder with 200 units across 5 shoes (360 hands) and a 80-unit maximum benchmarks a 16.76% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 6 adverse steps before capital-bounded envelope truncation. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-100u Stop)
16.76%
Target Hit (+50u Cap)
42.61%
360-Hand Expected Hold
7.35u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
80u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P P P B B B B P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M220 (1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, 200u bankroll, 360 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
200u / 5 Shoes (360 Hands)

Matrix cell M220 tests 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder with a $50 base unit and -100u/+50u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
16.76%

Probability of hitting the -100u drawdown barrier before completing 360 hands or reaching +50u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
42.61%

Share of 360-hand trajectories reaching the +50u session ceiling, with 40.62% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (80u Cap)

A 80-unit house limit and 200-unit stack cap 1-2-3-5 escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
7.35u ($368)

Derived from 626u total action (1.74x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M220 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

1-2-3-5 200u combinatorial dispersion Across 360 Hands (M220)

Audit M220-1 models the finite-shoe turnover of 1-2-3-5 when anchored to 200 units and a 360-hand (5-shoe) schedule: the 80-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 6, locking in a 16.76% stop-loss frequency and $368 in mathematical friction.

Under session-bounded boundary rules in M220-2, pairing 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder with 200 units across 5 shoes (360 hands) and a 80-unit maximum computes a 16.76% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 6 adverse steps before step-indexed boundary truncation.

M220 Parameter1-2-3-5 (200u)5-Shoe dispersion
1-2-3-5 Ladder1-2-3-5 (4 steps)Peak 5u multiplier on M220
200u Stack Window360 hands (5 shoes)Barriers -100u / +50u
80u Ceiling & Ruin16.76% ruin vs 42.61% winDepth 6 steps (2 cap hits)
626u Handle & Hold7.35u ($368)Multiplier 1.74x (combinatorial drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

80u Ceiling Collisions & 1-2-3-5 Turnover (5 Shoes)

Audit M220-3 inspects the variance-scaled decay-rate of 1-2-3-5 when anchored to 200 units and a 360-hand (5-shoe) schedule: the 80-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 6, locking in a 16.76% stop-loss frequency and $368 in mathematical friction.

Under step-indexed boundary rules in M220-4, pairing 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder with 200 units across 5 shoes (360 hands) and a 80-unit maximum verifies a 16.76% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 6 adverse steps before multi-coup escalation truncation.

  • Cell M220 rule: lock the -100u stop on your 200u 1-2-3-5 stack across 360 hands.
  • Matrix M220 quantifies 7.35u ($368) in house hold over 626u of 1-2-3-5 action.
  • Scoreboard check M220: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (combinatorial dispersion) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 200 units to a 5-shoe session lets 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 360 hands, 1-2-3-5 generates 626u in action, 7.35u in expected loss, and a 16.76% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell 1-2-3-5 bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 360-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android