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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · 1-2-3-5 · 150U / 3-SHOE

1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder — 150-Unit Bankroll & 3-Shoe (216-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

When a 150-unit stack enters a 3-shoe (216-hand) session using 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, absorbing-barrier model M217-0 calibrates 372u in cumulative action and a 14.89% barrier-absorption probability before the 60-unit table maximum truncates the variance-scaled boundary. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-75u Stop)
14.89%
Target Hit (+38u Cap)
41.71%
216-Hand Expected Hold
4.37u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
60u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B P B B P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = =
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M217 (1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, 150u bankroll, 216 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
150u / 3 Shoes (216 Hands)

Matrix cell M217 tests 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder with a $50 base unit and -75u/+38u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
14.89%

Probability of hitting the -75u drawdown barrier before completing 216 hands or reaching +38u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
41.71%

Share of 216-hand trajectories reaching the +38u session ceiling, with 43.40% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (60u Cap)

A 60-unit house limit and 150-unit stack cap 1-2-3-5 escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
4.37u ($219)

Derived from 372u total action (1.72x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M217 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

1-2-3-5 150u step-indexed survival-window Across 216 Hands (M217)

Testing 1-2-3-5 (1-2-3-5) at 150 units across 216 coups in cell M217-1 dissects a 14.89% chance of striking the -75-unit stop-loss, while the 60-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 4.37u ($219) in expected erosion.

When a 150-unit stack enters a 3-shoe (216-hand) session using 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, capital-bounded model M217-2 evaluates 372u in cumulative action and a 14.89% barrier-absorption probability before the 60-unit table maximum truncates the drawdown-weighted escalation.

M217 Parameter1-2-3-5 (150u)3-Shoe survival-window
1-2-3-5 Ladder1-2-3-5 (4 steps)Peak 5u multiplier on M217
150u Stack Window216 hands (3 shoes)Barriers -75u / +38u
60u Ceiling & Ruin14.89% ruin vs 41.71% winDepth 6 steps (1 cap hits)
372u Handle & Hold4.37u ($219)Multiplier 1.72x (step-indexed drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

60u Ceiling Collisions & 1-2-3-5 Turnover (3 Shoes)

Testing 1-2-3-5 (1-2-3-5) at 150 units across 216 coups in cell M217-3 audits a 14.89% chance of striking the -75-unit stop-loss, while the 60-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 4.37u ($219) in expected erosion.

When a 150-unit stack enters a 3-shoe (216-hand) session using 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, commission-adjusted model M217-4 tracks 372u in cumulative action and a 14.89% barrier-absorption probability before the 60-unit table maximum truncates the table-capped threshold.

  • Cell M217 rule: lock the -75u stop on your 150u 1-2-3-5 stack across 216 hands.
  • Matrix M217 dissects 4.37u ($219) in house hold over 372u of 1-2-3-5 action.
  • Scoreboard check M217: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (step-indexed survival-window) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 150 units to a 3-shoe session lets 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 216 hands, 1-2-3-5 generates 372u in action, 4.37u in expected loss, and a 14.89% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell 1-2-3-5 bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 216-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android