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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · 1-2-3-5 · 100U / 2-SHOE

1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder — 100-Unit Bankroll & 2-Shoe (144-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

For a 100-unit roll spanning 144 hands (2 shoes), 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder (1-2-3-5) models a combinatorial threshold under matrix M214-0, where the 50-unit table roof and -50u/+25u barriers yield 13.78% ruin versus 43.04% upside completion. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-50u Stop)
13.78%
Target Hit (+25u Cap)
43.04%
144-Hand Expected Hold
2.50u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
50u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P B B P P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M214 (1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder, 100u bankroll, 144 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
100u / 2 Shoes (144 Hands)

Matrix cell M214 tests 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder with a $25 base unit and -50u/+25u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
13.78%

Probability of hitting the -50u drawdown barrier before completing 144 hands or reaching +25u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
43.04%

Share of 144-hand trajectories reaching the +25u session ceiling, with 43.18% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (50u Cap)

A 50-unit house limit and 100-unit stack cap 1-2-3-5 escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
2.50u ($63)

Derived from 213u total action (1.48x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M214 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

1-2-3-5 100u house-edge-anchored exposure Across 144 Hands (M214)

Combinatorial ledger M214-1 computes 1-2-3-5 (1-2-3-5) at 100 units and 144 hands (2 shoes), proving that a 50-unit table ceiling and 1.48x average bet multiplier yield 13.78% ruin probability and 2.50u in theoretical house hold.

For a 100-unit roll spanning 144 hands (2 shoes), 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder (1-2-3-5) inspects a table-capped footprint under matrix M214-2, where the 50-unit table roof and -50u/+25u barriers yield 13.78% ruin versus 43.04% upside completion.

M214 Parameter1-2-3-5 (100u)2-Shoe exposure
1-2-3-5 Ladder1-2-3-5 (4 steps)Peak 5u multiplier on M214
100u Stack Window144 hands (2 shoes)Barriers -50u / +25u
50u Ceiling & Ruin13.78% ruin vs 43.04% winDepth 6 steps (1 cap hits)
213u Handle & Hold2.50u ($63)Multiplier 1.48x (house-edge-anchored drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

50u Ceiling Collisions & 1-2-3-5 Turnover (2 Shoes)

Combinatorial ledger M214-3 verifies 1-2-3-5 (1-2-3-5) at 100 units and 144 hands (2 shoes), proving that a 50-unit table ceiling and 1.48x average bet multiplier yield 13.78% ruin probability and 2.50u in theoretical house hold.

For a 100-unit roll spanning 144 hands (2 shoes), 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder (1-2-3-5) tabulates a stochastic cadence under matrix M214-4, where the 50-unit table roof and -50u/+25u barriers yield 13.78% ruin versus 43.04% upside completion.

  • Cell M214 rule: lock the -50u stop on your 100u 1-2-3-5 stack across 144 hands.
  • Matrix M214 measures 2.50u ($63) in house hold over 213u of 1-2-3-5 action.
  • Scoreboard check M214: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (house-edge-anchored exposure) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 100 units to a 2-shoe session lets 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 144 hands, 1-2-3-5 generates 213u in action, 2.50u in expected loss, and a 13.78% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell 1-2-3-5 bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 144-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android