Every square on a casino baccarat layout is governed by two fixed numbers: the combinatorial probability of that outcome occurring in a 416-card (eight-deck) shoe, and the baccarat payouts printed on the felt. The mathematical gap between those two figures is the casino's built-in house edge.
Whether you are auditing a standard 5% commission shoe, comparing Banker versus Player house edge, or checking how much an 11:1 Pair, 40:1 Dragon 7, or 8:1 Tie side wager actually costs per $100 staked, this complete reference guide puts every eight-deck payout ratio, true break-even odds figure, and dollar-and-cent chip payout in one place—paired with an engine-verified 18-hand shoe you can inspect live in our free Baccarat Calculator & Road Decoder.
1. Complete 8-deck baccarat payouts & odds table
In a freshly shuffled eight-deck shoe (416 cards), there are 4,998,398,275,503,360 ordered six-card deals governed by the fixed Punto Banco third-card drawing rules. Across every one of those deals, the table below compares the posted casino payout against the true break-even odds and resulting house edge per $100 wagered:
| Wager & Table Variant | Posted Payout | 8-Deck Probability | True Break-Even Odds | House Edge | Cost / $100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banker (EZ Baccarat — Dragon 7 Push) | 1:1 (3-card Banker 7 pushes) | 43.61% win · 11.77% total push | 1.023:1 on decided hands | 1.02% | −$1.02 |
| Banker (Standard 5% Commission) | 0.95:1 (19 to 20, Tie pushes) | 45.86% win · 9.52% push | 0.973:1 on decided hands | 1.06% | −$1.06 |
| Player (Standard) | 1:1 (Even money, Tie pushes) | 44.62% win · 9.52% push | 1.028:1 on decided hands | 1.24% | −$1.24 |
| Banker (Super 6 / No-Commission) | 1:1 (Banker win on 6 pays 0.5:1) | 40.47% full · 5.39% half · 9.52% push | 0.973:1 on decided hands | 1.46% | −$1.46 |
| Tie (9:1 Payout Table) | 9:1 | 9.52% (1 in 10.51 hands) | 9.509:1 | 4.84% | −$4.84 |
| Dragon 7 (3-Card Banker 7 Side Bet) | 40:1 | 2.25% (1 in 44.38 hands) | 43.377:1 | 7.61% | −$7.61 |
| Panda 8 (3-Card Player 8 Side Bet) | 25:1 | 3.45% (1 in 28.95 hands) | 27.948:1 | 10.19% | −$10.19 |
| Player Pair or Banker Pair | 11:1 (First 2 cards same rank) | 7.47% (1 in 13.39 hands) | 12.387:1 | 10.36% | −$10.36 |
| Perfect Pair (Either Hand, Same Rank & Suit) | 25:1 | 3.35% (1 in 29.90 hands) | 28.895:1 | 13.03% | −$13.03 |
| Either Pair (Player or Banker Initial Pair) | 5:1 | 14.38% (1 in 6.95 hands) | 5.953:1 | 13.71% | −$13.71 |
| Tie (Standard 8:1 Payout Table) | 8:1 | 9.52% (1 in 10.51 hands) | 9.509:1 | 14.36% | −$14.36 |
| Super 6 Side Bet (Banker Wins on 6) | 12:1 | 5.39% (1 in 18.57 hands) | 17.567:1 | 29.98% | −$29.98 |
2. Dollar-and-cent payout chart for common chip sizes
At live tables that charge the standard 5% Banker commission, odd wager amounts require fractional change ($0.25 or $0.50 coins) or a commission marker box tracked by the dealer until the end of the shoe. Wagers placed in $20 or $100 increments resolve cleanly in whole dollar chips because 5% of $20 is exactly $1.00:
| Chip Stake | Player (1:1) Net Win | Banker (0.95:1) Net Win | Super 6 Banker on 6 (0.5:1) | Tie (8:1 / 9:1) Net Win | Pair (11:1) Net Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 | +$10.00 | +$9.50 ($0.50 fee) | +$5.00 | +$80 / +$90 | +$110 |
| $20 | +$20.00 | +$19.00 ($1.00 fee) | +$10.00 | +$160 / +$180 | +$220 |
| $25 | +$25.00 | +$23.75 ($1.25 fee) | +$12.50 | +$200 / +$225 | +$275 |
| $50 | +$50.00 | +$47.50 ($2.50 fee) | +$25.00 | +$400 / +$450 | +$550 |
| $100 | +$100.00 | +$95.00 ($5.00 fee) | +$50.00 | +$800 / +$900 | +$1,100 |
| $500 | +$500.00 | +$475.00 ($25.00 fee) | +$250.00 | +$4,000 / +$4,500 | +$5,500 |
3. Main bets explained: Banker, Player, and Tie
A closer look at the three core wagers explains why evaluating the lowest-edge bet in baccarat always starts with the drawing asymmetry between Player and Banker.
Banker payout (0.95:1 standard vs 1:1 no-commission variants)
Because the Banker hand acts after the Player hand and inspects the exact point value of Player's third card before deciding whether to draw on totals of 3, 4, 5, or 6, Banker wins 45.8597% of all hands (compared with 44.6247% for Player). Excluding the 9.5156% of hands that end in a Tie push, Banker takes 50.68% of all decided hands.
If Banker paid even money (1:1) on every win, a bettor would hold a +1.235% mathematical edge over the casino. Casinos eliminate that advantage in one of three ways:
- Standard 5% Commission (0.95:1): Deducting 5% from every winning Banker wager costs
0.05 × 45.8597% = 2.293%of stake, leaving a net house edge of 1.06% (or1.17%per decided hand). - Super 6 / No-Commission (0.5:1 on Banker 6): Paying even money on Banker wins except when Banker wins with a point total of
6(which occurs on5.386%of all eight-deck hands and pays0.5:1) forfeits0.50 × 5.386% = 2.693%of stake, raising the Banker house edge to 1.46%. - EZ Baccarat (Push on 3-Card Banker 7): Replacing the 5% commission by turning a winning three-card Banker total of
7into a push (which occurs on2.253%of all hands) forfeits1.00 × 2.253% = 2.253%of stake, leaving the Banker house edge at 1.02%.
Player payout (1:1 even money)
Winning Player wagers always pay 1:1 with zero commission. Because Player wins 44.6247% of hands, loses 45.8597% of hands, and pushes on the remaining 9.5156% Ties, the expected value is (+1 × 0.446247) − (1 × 0.458597) = −0.012350, or a 1.24% house edge (1.36% per decided hand). Notice that on a Super 6 / No-Commission table where Banker's edge rises to 1.46%, Player's unchanged 1.24% edge actually makes Player the lower-cost wager on that felt.
Tie payout (8:1 standard vs 9:1 tables)
When both hands finish with the same modulo-10 point total (0–9), the coup is a Tie. Crucially, a Tie does not cause Banker or Player wagers to lose—those main bets push and remain on the layout for the next deal (or can be pulled back by the player). A separate Tie wager wins on 9.5156% of deals and loses on the other 90.4844%:
- At 8:1 (standard floor payout):
(+8 × 0.095156) − (1 × 0.904844) = −0.143596, a 14.36% house edge ($14.36 expected cost per $100 staked). - At 9:1 (select tables):
(+9 × 0.095156) − (1 × 0.904844) = −0.048440, reducing the house edge to 4.84%—still nearly four times the cost of Player or Banker.
4. How deck count changes baccarat odds (8 decks vs 6 decks vs 1 deck)
While eight decks (416 cards) is the global standard for full-size and mini-baccarat shoes, some midi-baccarat pits deal from a six-deck shoe (312 cards). Keeping the posted payouts fixed while reducing the number of decks alters the card-removal probabilities—especially on Pair wagers:
| Wager (Standard Payout) | 8 Decks (416 Cards) | 6 Decks (312 Cards) | 1 Deck (52 Cards) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker (0.95:1) | 1.058% edge (45.86% win) | 1.056% edge (45.87% win) | 1.011% edge (45.96% win) |
| Player (1:1) | 1.235% edge (44.62% win) | 1.237% edge (44.63% win) | 1.286% edge (44.68% win) |
| Tie (8:1) | 14.360% edge (9.52% win) | 14.437% edge (9.51% win) | 15.752% edge (9.36% win) |
| Player / Banker Pair (11:1) | 10.361% edge (7.47% win) | 11.254% edge (7.40% win) | 29.412% edge (5.88% win) |
5. Side-bet combinatorics audited: Pairs, Dragon 7, and Panda 8
Side bets occupy the center of modern layouts because their house edges are six to twenty-eight times higher than the two main bets:
- Player Pair & Banker Pair (11:1, 10.36% edge): Wins if the first two cards dealt to that side match in rank (e.g., two 7s or two Kings). In an eight-deck shoe (416 cards), once the first card is dealt,
31of the remaining415cards share that exact rank (31 / 415 = 7.47%, or 1 in 13.39 hands; in 6 decks,23 / 311 = 7.40%; in 1 deck,3 / 51 = 5.88%). Paying11:1yields(+11 × 31/415) − (384/415) = −43/415 = −10.361%. - Either Pair (5:1, 13.71% edge) & Perfect Pair (25:1, 13.03% edge): Subtracting the
0.558%overlap where both hands pair on the same deal gives Either Pair a14.382%hit rate (13.71%edge at5:1). A suited Perfect Pair requires one of the7identical rank-and-suit copies among415cards (7 / 415 = 1.687%on one hand, or3.345%across either hand, leaving a13.03%edge at25:1). - Dragon 7 (40:1, 7.61% edge) & Panda 8 (25:1, 10.19% edge): On EZ Baccarat layouts, a winning three-card Banker 7 lands on
2.2534%of eight-deck hands (1 in 44.38 deals), while a winning three-card Player 8 lands on3.4544%of hands (1 in 28.95 deals).
6. Worked 18-hand shoe (PPBBPPPBBPBBPPBBTB): payouts vs scoreboard roads
A common misconception at live tables is that a cluster of red or blue marks on the electronic scoreboard changes the odds or payouts of the next coup. Let's test that against an engine-verified 18-hand shoe (PPBBPPPBBPBBPPBBTB—9 Banker wins, 8 Player wins, and 1 Tie):
PPBBPPPBBPBBPPBBTB
Bead Plate
Big Road
Big Eye Boy
Small Road
Cockroach Pig
What the five scoreboards actually record on this 18-hand shoe
In PPBBPPPBBPBBPPBBTB, the 18 hands form 8 Big Road columns of depths 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3 (with Hand 17 marking a Tie on Column 8, Row 2), producing 14 Big Eye Boy marks (R R R B B R B B B B R R R B), 12 Small Road marks (R B B R R B R R B B R B), and 9 Cockroach Pig marks (R R B R B R R B R). If you are learning how to read baccarat roads, trace these three moments in PPBBPPPBBPBBPPBBTB:
- Big Road & Bead Plate colors vs Derived Road colors: On the Bead Plate and Big Road, red records a Banker win (9 hands) and blue records a Player win (8 hands). On the three derived roads—Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig—red and blue never mean Banker or Player: there, red means pattern repetition/symmetry and blue means a pattern break.
- Hand 17 (Tie on Column 8, Row 2): After Banker wins Hands 15 and 16 to reach Column 8, Row 2, Hand 17 is a Tie (
T). At the table, Banker and Player bets push (returning the original stake with $0 lost), while 8:1 Tie wagers collect 8 units. On the Big Road, Hand 17 adds a green diagonal slash onto the existing Banker bead at Column 8, Row 2 without starting a new cell, and all three derived roads skip the Tie completely. - Hand 18 (Banker at Column 8, Row 3 — Rule 2 Case 2B vs Case 2C): When Banker wins Hand 18, Column 8 goes down to Row 3, triggering Rule 2 across all three derived roads:
- Big Eye Boy (lookback 1, Column 7 of depth 2): This bead is at Row 3. Column 7 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠) (Case 2B, entry 14).
- Small Road (lookback 2, Column 6 of depth 2): This bead is at Row 3. Column 6 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠) (Case 2B, entry 12).
- Cockroach Pig (lookback 3, Column 5 of depth 1): This bead is at Row 3. Column 5 stopped at Row 1, more than one row above → red (=) (Case 2C, entry 9).
Hand 19 preview: triple Red or triple Blue does not move the payout math
Look at what happens on Hand 19 of PPBBPPPBBPBBPPBBTB:
- If Hand 19 is Banker (Column 8 continues down to Row 4, Rule 2): Column 7 (depth 2), Column 6 (depth 2), and Column 5 (depth 1) all stopped more than one row above Row 4 (Rule 2, Case 2C). All three derived roads—Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig—will record red (=).
- If Hand 19 is Player (Column 9 starts at Row 1, Rule 1): Column 8 finishes with 3 beads, while Column 7 has 2 beads, Column 6 has 2 beads, and Column 5 has 1 bead. Because every comparison has a different depth (
3 ≠ 2and3 ≠ 1), all three derived roads will record blue (≠).
Even though Hand 19 produces a unanimous Red / Red / Red on a Banker win and a unanimous Blue / Blue / Blue on a Player win, the payout ratios and eight-deck house edges on Hand 19 stay locked at 1.06% on Banker (0.95:1), 1.24% on Player (1:1), and 14.36% on an 8:1 Tie.
Test this 18-hand shoe in the interactive sandbox
Use the interactive shoe below to tap + Banker, + Player, or + Tie onto PPBBPPPBBPBBPPBBTB and watch Hand 19 resolve across all five roads, or open the full Baccarat Calculator & Road Decoder for $0 with no account required.