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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP314] · 55% DEPTH

Deuce (2) Depletion at 229/416 Cards (55%): P0-5 vs B-Stand Impact #314

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP314, 229 of 416 cards (55%) have exited the shoe, leaving 11 copies of Deuce (2) among 187 unseen cards (5.88% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting P0-5 vs B-Stand frequency by -41 bps.

DEP314 Shoe Depth
229/416 (55%)
DEP314 2 Density
11/187 (5.88%)
DEP314 Draw Delta
-41 bps
DEP314 Tableau Gate
B2vP1:DRAW
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B B P B B B P P P B B B B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 55% shoe-penetration state DEP314 (Deuce (2) -> 11/187).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 2, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Small Road Mark #3

This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 3.
  2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 3 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP314 Penetration Depth
229 Dealt / 187 Remaining (55%)

Evaluated at Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP314 Rank 2 Supply
11 of 32 Remaining (5.88%)

Compares depleted density 5.88% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Deuce (2).

DEP314 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -41 bps / B-Stand 22 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP314 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[2][1] = true

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (2, 1) but never alters the fixed DRAW rule.

DEP314 Sample Coup Resolution
P(7+4)+A=2 vs B(10+2)=9 (B)

Verified 6-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP314.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP314

How Removing Deuce (2) at 229 Cards Affects P0-5 vs B-Stand (DEP314)

In finite-shoe state [DEP314], 229 cards have exited the 416-card shoe, leaving 11 Deuce (2) cards in 187 (5.88% vs 7.69%) to govern the Player 0..5 fifth-card draw rate versus Banker 6..7 stand rate.

[DEP314-B] Even as Deuce (2) (2 pts) depletion shifts Player drawing by -41 bps and Banker standing by 22 bps in [DEP314], Punto Banco law for B=2 vs P3=1 draws a sixth card.

Depletion Matrix for DEP314 (Deuce (2) at 229/416 Cards)
DEP314 MetricDEP314 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP314 At 229 DealtDEP314 Tableau Effect
[DEP314:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)187 Left (55% Dealt)Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt)
[DEP314:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)11/187 (5.88%)Point Value 2
[DEP314:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -41 bps / B 22 bpsP0-5 vs B-Stand
[DEP314:Hand]P=1 vs B=2, P3=1P=2 vs B=96c (B)
  • [DEP314-1] Verify [DEP314] 187 unseen cards remain after 229/416 exit.
  • [DEP314-2] Compare [DEP314] Deuce (2) density (11/187=5.88%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP314-3] Apply [DEP314] BANKER_TABLEAU[2][1]=true (6c B).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP314

Why DEP314 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP314-C12] Auditioning [DEP314] at depth, Player opens 1 + 1 -> 2 while Banker opens 2 -> 9 across 6c (B in [DEP314]). Across [DEP314] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging B onto [DEP314] BBPPBPBBPB updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Deuce (2) is depleted to 11/187 in DEP314, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[2][1] remains true at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 229/416 cards in DEP314 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
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Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
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