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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP286] · 25% DEPTH

Deuce (2) Depletion at 104/416 Cards (25%): P0-5 vs B-Stand Impact #286

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP286, 104 of 416 cards (25%) have exited the shoe, leaving 21 copies of Deuce (2) among 312 unseen cards (6.73% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting P0-5 vs B-Stand frequency by -31 bps.

DEP286 Shoe Depth
104/416 (25%)
DEP286 2 Density
21/312 (6.73%)
DEP286 Draw Delta
-31 bps
DEP286 Tableau Gate
B2vP1:DRAW
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P P B B P B B P P B P P P B B B B
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = ≠
Small Road = = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig ≠ = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ =

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 25% shoe-penetration state DEP286 (Deuce (2) -> 21/312).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

Column 2 has 3 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 3 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #3

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 3 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 3 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 3 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 3 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP286 Penetration Depth
104 Dealt / 312 Remaining (25%)

Evaluated at Early-Shoe Quarter Marker (2 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP286 Rank 2 Supply
21 of 32 Remaining (6.73%)

Compares depleted density 6.73% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Deuce (2).

DEP286 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -31 bps / B-Stand 31 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP286 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[2][1] = true

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (2, 1) but never alters the fixed DRAW rule.

DEP286 Sample Coup Resolution
P(9+4)+A=4 vs B(10+2)=1 (P)

Verified 6-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP286.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP286

How Removing Deuce (2) at 104 Cards Affects P0-5 vs B-Stand (DEP286)

In finite-shoe state [DEP286], 104 cards have exited the 416-card shoe, leaving 21 Deuce (2) cards in 312 (6.73% vs 7.69%) to govern the Player 0..5 fifth-card draw rate versus Banker 6..7 stand rate.

[DEP286-B] Even as Deuce (2) (2 pts) depletion shifts Player drawing by -31 bps and Banker standing by 31 bps in [DEP286], Punto Banco law for B=2 vs P3=1 draws a sixth card.

Depletion Matrix for DEP286 (Deuce (2) at 104/416 Cards)
DEP286 MetricDEP286 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP286 At 104 DealtDEP286 Tableau Effect
[DEP286:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)312 Left (25% Dealt)Early-Shoe Quarter Marker (2 decks dealt)
[DEP286:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)21/312 (6.73%)Point Value 2
[DEP286:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -31 bps / B 31 bpsP0-5 vs B-Stand
[DEP286:Hand]P=3 vs B=2, P3=1P=4 vs B=16c (P)
  • [DEP286-1] Verify [DEP286] 312 unseen cards remain after 104/416 exit.
  • [DEP286-2] Compare [DEP286] Deuce (2) density (21/312=6.73%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP286-3] Apply [DEP286] BANKER_TABLEAU[2][1]=true (6c P).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP286

Why DEP286 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP286-C11] Auditioning [DEP286] at depth, Player opens 3 + 1 -> 4 while Banker opens 2 -> 1 across 6c (P in [DEP286]). Across [DEP286] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging P onto [DEP286] BBPPPBBPBB updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Deuce (2) is depleted to 21/312 in DEP286, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[2][1] remains true at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 104/416 cards in DEP286 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
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