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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP146] · 25% DEPTH

Deuce (2) Depletion at 104/416 Cards (25%): B5 Draw 4-7 Gate Impact #146

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP146, 104 of 416 cards (25%) have exited the shoe, leaving 21 copies of Deuce (2) among 312 unseen cards (6.73% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting B5 Draw 4-7 Gate frequency by -34 bps.

DEP146 Shoe Depth
104/416 (25%)
DEP146 2 Density
21/312 (6.73%)
DEP146 Draw Delta
-34 bps
DEP146 Tableau Gate
B5vP5:DRAW
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B P P P B B B B P P B P B B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ =

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 25% shoe-penetration state DEP146 (Deuce (2) -> 21/312).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 2, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Small Road Mark #3

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 3 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 3, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 3 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 3.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 3.
  2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 3 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP146 Penetration Depth
104 Dealt / 312 Remaining (25%)

Evaluated at Early-Shoe Quarter Marker (2 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP146 Rank 2 Supply
21 of 32 Remaining (6.73%)

Compares depleted density 6.73% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Deuce (2).

DEP146 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -34 bps / B-Stand 14 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP146 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[5][5] = true

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (5, 5) but never alters the fixed DRAW rule.

DEP146 Sample Coup Resolution
P(7+4)+5=6 vs B(2+3)=7 (B)

Verified 6-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP146.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP146

How Removing Deuce (2) at 104 Cards Affects B5 Draw 4-7 Gate (DEP146)

In finite-shoe state [DEP146], 104 cards have exited the 416-card shoe, leaving 21 Deuce (2) cards in 312 (6.73% vs 7.69%) to govern the Banker 5 four-value draw threshold against 4..7.

[DEP146-B] Even as Deuce (2) (2 pts) depletion shifts Player drawing by -34 bps and Banker standing by 14 bps in [DEP146], Punto Banco law for B=5 vs P3=5 draws a sixth card.

Depletion Matrix for DEP146 (Deuce (2) at 104/416 Cards)
DEP146 MetricDEP146 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP146 At 104 DealtDEP146 Tableau Effect
[DEP146:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)312 Left (25% Dealt)Early-Shoe Quarter Marker (2 decks dealt)
[DEP146:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)21/312 (6.73%)Point Value 2
[DEP146:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -34 bps / B 14 bpsB5 Draw 4-7 Gate
[DEP146:Hand]P=1 vs B=5, P3=5P=6 vs B=76c (B)
  • [DEP146-1] Verify [DEP146] 312 unseen cards remain after 104/416 exit.
  • [DEP146-2] Compare [DEP146] Deuce (2) density (21/312=6.73%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP146-3] Apply [DEP146] BANKER_TABLEAU[5][5]=true (6c B).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP146

Why DEP146 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP146-C6] Auditioning [DEP146] at depth, Player opens 1 + 5 -> 6 while Banker opens 5 -> 7 across 6c (B in [DEP146]). Across [DEP146] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging B onto [DEP146] BBPPBPBPPP updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Deuce (2) is depleted to 21/312 in DEP146, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[5][5] remains true at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 104/416 cards in DEP146 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
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Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
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