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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP253] · 70% DEPTH

Ten (10) Depletion at 291/416 Cards (70%): B6 Draw 6-7 Gate Impact #253

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP253, 291 of 416 cards (70%) have exited the shoe, leaving 8 copies of Ten (10) among 125 unseen cards (6.40% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting B6 Draw 6-7 Gate frequency by -41 bps.

DEP253 Shoe Depth
291/416 (70%)
DEP253 10 Density
8/125 (6.40%)
DEP253 Draw Delta
-41 bps
DEP253 Tableau Gate
B6vP6:DRAW
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P B P P B B P B B B P P P B P P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ =
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 70% shoe-penetration state DEP253 (Ten (10) -> 8/125).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 2, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Small Road Mark #3

This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 3.
  2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 3 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP253 Penetration Depth
291 Dealt / 125 Remaining (70%)

Evaluated at Deep-Shoe Segment (5.6 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP253 Rank 10 Supply
8 of 32 Remaining (6.40%)

Compares depleted density 6.40% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Ten (10).

DEP253 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -41 bps / B-Stand 21 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP253 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[6][6] = true

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (6, 6) but never alters the fixed DRAW rule.

DEP253 Sample Coup Resolution
P(10+K)+6=6 vs B(2+4)=4 (P)

Verified 6-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP253.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP253

How Removing Ten (10) at 291 Cards Affects B6 Draw 6-7 Gate (DEP253)

[DEP253] At 291 cards dealt (70% shoe depth, 125 undealt), removing 24 copies of Ten (10) leaves 8/125 (6.40% vs fresh-shoe 7.69%) entering the Banker 6 two-value sixth-card trigger against 6 or 7.

[DEP253-B] Because Ten (10) carries point value 0, thinning this rank shifts Player 0..5 drawing frequency by -41 bps and Banker standing frequency by 21 bps while BANKER_TABLEAU[6][6]=true still draws a sixth card.

Depletion Matrix for DEP253 (Ten (10) at 291/416 Cards)
DEP253 MetricDEP253 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP253 At 291 DealtDEP253 Tableau Effect
[DEP253:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)125 Left (70% Dealt)Deep-Shoe Segment (5.6 decks dealt)
[DEP253:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)8/125 (6.40%)Point Value 0
[DEP253:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -41 bps / B 21 bpsB6 Draw 6-7 Gate
[DEP253:Hand]P=0 vs B=6, P3=6P=6 vs B=46c (P)
  • [DEP253-1] Verify [DEP253] 125 unseen cards remain after 291/416 exit.
  • [DEP253-2] Compare [DEP253] Ten (10) density (8/125=6.40%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP253-3] Apply [DEP253] BANKER_TABLEAU[6][6]=true (6c P).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP253

Why DEP253 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP253-C1] Auditioning [DEP253] at depth, Player opens 0 + 6 -> 6 while Banker opens 6 -> 4 across 6c (P in [DEP253]). Across [DEP253] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging P onto [DEP253] PPBBPBPPBB updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Ten (10) is depleted to 8/125 in DEP253, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[6][6] remains true at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 291/416 cards in DEP253 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
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Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
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