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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP309] · 55% DEPTH

Ten (10) Depletion at 229/416 Cards (55%): P0-5 vs B-Stand Impact #309

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP309, 229 of 416 cards (55%) have exited the shoe, leaving 12 copies of Ten (10) among 187 unseen cards (6.42% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting P0-5 vs B-Stand frequency by -16 bps.

DEP309 Shoe Depth
229/416 (55%)
DEP309 10 Density
12/187 (6.42%)
DEP309 Draw Delta
-16 bps
DEP309 Tableau Gate
B2vP0:DRAW
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P P B B P B B B P P P B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = = ≠
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ =

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 55% shoe-penetration state DEP309 (Ten (10) -> 12/187).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

Column 2 has 3 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 3 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #3

This bead is at Row 4. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, more than one row above → red (=).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 4, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, more than one row above → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 3 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 3 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP309 Penetration Depth
229 Dealt / 187 Remaining (55%)

Evaluated at Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP309 Rank 10 Supply
12 of 32 Remaining (6.42%)

Compares depleted density 6.42% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Ten (10).

DEP309 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -16 bps / B-Stand 34 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP309 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[2][0] = true

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (2, 0) but never alters the fixed DRAW rule.

DEP309 Sample Coup Resolution
P(10+2)+10=2 vs B(8+4)=2 (T)

Verified 6-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP309.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP309

How Removing Ten (10) at 229 Cards Affects P0-5 vs B-Stand (DEP309)

[DEP309] At 229 cards dealt (55% shoe depth, 187 undealt), removing 20 copies of Ten (10) leaves 12/187 (6.42% vs fresh-shoe 7.69%) entering the Player 0..5 fifth-card draw rate versus Banker 6..7 stand rate.

[DEP309-B] Because Ten (10) carries point value 0, thinning this rank shifts Player 0..5 drawing frequency by -16 bps and Banker standing frequency by 34 bps while BANKER_TABLEAU[2][0]=true still draws a sixth card.

Depletion Matrix for DEP309 (Ten (10) at 229/416 Cards)
DEP309 MetricDEP309 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP309 At 229 DealtDEP309 Tableau Effect
[DEP309:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)187 Left (55% Dealt)Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt)
[DEP309:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)12/187 (6.42%)Point Value 0
[DEP309:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -16 bps / B 34 bpsP0-5 vs B-Stand
[DEP309:Hand]P=2 vs B=2, P3=0P=2 vs B=26c (T)
  • [DEP309-1] Verify [DEP309] 187 unseen cards remain after 229/416 exit.
  • [DEP309-2] Compare [DEP309] Ten (10) density (12/187=6.42%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP309-3] Apply [DEP309] BANKER_TABLEAU[2][0]=true (6c T).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP309

Why DEP309 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP309-C3] Auditioning [DEP309] at depth, Player opens 2 + 0 -> 2 while Banker opens 2 -> 2 across 6c (T in [DEP309]). Across [DEP309] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging T onto [DEP309] PPBBBPPPPB updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Ten (10) is depleted to 12/187 in DEP309, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[2][0] remains true at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 229/416 cards in DEP309 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
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