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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP169] · 55% DEPTH

Ten (10) Depletion at 229/416 Cards (55%): B5 Draw 4-7 Gate Impact #169

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP169, 229 of 416 cards (55%) have exited the shoe, leaving 12 copies of Ten (10) among 187 unseen cards (6.42% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting B5 Draw 4-7 Gate frequency by -19 bps.

DEP169 Shoe Depth
229/416 (55%)
DEP169 10 Density
12/187 (6.42%)
DEP169 Draw Delta
-19 bps
DEP169 Tableau Gate
B5vP4:DRAW
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B B P P P P B B P B B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Small Road = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ = = ≠

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 55% shoe-penetration state DEP169 (Ten (10) -> 12/187).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #3

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

Column 4 has 3 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 3 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP169 Penetration Depth
229 Dealt / 187 Remaining (55%)

Evaluated at Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP169 Rank 10 Supply
12 of 32 Remaining (6.42%)

Compares depleted density 6.42% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Ten (10).

DEP169 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -19 bps / B-Stand 17 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP169 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[5][4] = true

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (5, 4) but never alters the fixed DRAW rule.

DEP169 Sample Coup Resolution
P(10+K)+4=4 vs B(A+4)=8 (B)

Verified 6-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP169.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP169

How Removing Ten (10) at 229 Cards Affects B5 Draw 4-7 Gate (DEP169)

[DEP169] At 229 cards dealt (55% shoe depth, 187 undealt), removing 20 copies of Ten (10) leaves 12/187 (6.42% vs fresh-shoe 7.69%) entering the Banker 5 four-value draw threshold against 4..7.

[DEP169-B] Because Ten (10) carries point value 0, thinning this rank shifts Player 0..5 drawing frequency by -19 bps and Banker standing frequency by 17 bps while BANKER_TABLEAU[5][4]=true still draws a sixth card.

Depletion Matrix for DEP169 (Ten (10) at 229/416 Cards)
DEP169 MetricDEP169 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP169 At 229 DealtDEP169 Tableau Effect
[DEP169:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)187 Left (55% Dealt)Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt)
[DEP169:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)12/187 (6.42%)Point Value 0
[DEP169:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -19 bps / B 17 bpsB5 Draw 4-7 Gate
[DEP169:Hand]P=0 vs B=5, P3=4P=4 vs B=86c (B)
  • [DEP169-1] Verify [DEP169] 187 unseen cards remain after 229/416 exit.
  • [DEP169-2] Compare [DEP169] Ten (10) density (12/187=6.42%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP169-3] Apply [DEP169] BANKER_TABLEAU[5][4]=true (6c B).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP169

Why DEP169 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP169-C11] Auditioning [DEP169] at depth, Player opens 0 + 4 -> 4 while Banker opens 5 -> 8 across 6c (B in [DEP169]). Across [DEP169] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging B onto [DEP169] PPBBPPBBBP updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Ten (10) is depleted to 12/187 in DEP169, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[5][4] remains true at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 229/416 cards in DEP169 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
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Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
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