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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP029] · 55% DEPTH

Ten (10) Depletion at 229/416 Cards (55%): B3 vs P3=8 Shade Impact #29

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP029, 229 of 416 cards (55%) have exited the shoe, leaving 12 copies of Ten (10) among 187 unseen cards (6.42% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting B3 vs P3=8 Shade frequency by -22 bps.

DEP029 Shoe Depth
229/416 (55%)
DEP029 10 Density
12/187 (6.42%)
DEP029 Draw Delta
-22 bps
DEP029 Tableau Gate
B3vP8:STAND
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P B P P B B P B B B P P P B P P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ =
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 55% shoe-penetration state DEP029 (Ten (10) -> 12/187).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 2, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Small Road Mark #3

This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 3.
  2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 3 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP029 Penetration Depth
229 Dealt / 187 Remaining (55%)

Evaluated at Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP029 Rank 10 Supply
12 of 32 Remaining (6.42%)

Compares depleted density 6.42% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Ten (10).

DEP029 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -22 bps / B-Stand 31 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP029 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[3][8] = false

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (3, 8) but never alters the fixed STAND rule.

DEP029 Sample Coup Resolution
P(2+2)+8=2 vs B(9+4)=3 (B)

Verified 5-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP029.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP029

How Removing Ten (10) at 229 Cards Affects B3 vs P3=8 Shade (DEP029)

[DEP029] At 229 cards dealt (55% shoe depth, 187 undealt), removing 20 copies of Ten (10) leaves 12/187 (6.42% vs fresh-shoe 7.69%) entering the Banker 3 standing exception on Player third-card 8.

[DEP029-B] Because Ten (10) carries point value 0, thinning this rank shifts Player 0..5 drawing frequency by -22 bps and Banker standing frequency by 31 bps while BANKER_TABLEAU[3][8]=false still stands pat on five cards.

Depletion Matrix for DEP029 (Ten (10) at 229/416 Cards)
DEP029 MetricDEP029 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP029 At 229 DealtDEP029 Tableau Effect
[DEP029:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)187 Left (55% Dealt)Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt)
[DEP029:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)12/187 (6.42%)Point Value 0
[DEP029:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -22 bps / B 31 bpsB3 vs P3=8 Shade
[DEP029:Hand]P=4 vs B=3, P3=8P=2 vs B=35c (B)
  • [DEP029-1] Verify [DEP029] 187 unseen cards remain after 229/416 exit.
  • [DEP029-2] Compare [DEP029] Ten (10) density (12/187=6.42%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP029-3] Apply [DEP029] BANKER_TABLEAU[3][8]=false (5c B).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP029

Why DEP029 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP029-C6] Auditioning [DEP029] at depth, Player opens 4 + 8 -> 2 while Banker opens 3 -> 3 across 5c (B in [DEP029]). Across [DEP029] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging B onto [DEP029] PPBBPBPPBB updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Ten (10) is depleted to 12/187 in DEP029, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[3][8] remains false at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 229/416 cards in DEP029 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
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Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
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