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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP178] · 55% DEPTH

Six (6) Depletion at 229/416 Cards (55%): B5 Draw 4-7 Gate Impact #178

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP178, 229 of 416 cards (55%) have exited the shoe, leaving 11 copies of Six (6) among 187 unseen cards (5.88% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting B5 Draw 4-7 Gate frequency by 27 bps.

DEP178 Shoe Depth
229/416 (55%)
DEP178 6 Density
11/187 (5.88%)
DEP178 Draw Delta
27 bps
DEP178 Tableau Gate
B5vP5:DRAW
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B P P P B B B B P P B P B B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ =

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 55% shoe-penetration state DEP178 (Six (6) -> 11/187).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 2, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Small Road Mark #3

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 3 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 3, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 3 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 3.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 3.
  2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 3 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP178 Penetration Depth
229 Dealt / 187 Remaining (55%)

Evaluated at Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP178 Rank 6 Supply
11 of 32 Remaining (5.88%)

Compares depleted density 5.88% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Six (6).

DEP178 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw 27 bps / B-Stand -14 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP178 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[5][5] = true

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (5, 5) but never alters the fixed DRAW rule.

DEP178 Sample Coup Resolution
P(9+4)+5=8 vs B(2+3)=3 (P)

Verified 6-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP178.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP178

How Removing Six (6) at 229 Cards Affects B5 Draw 4-7 Gate (DEP178)

In depletion audit [DEP178], an 8-deck shoe reaches Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt) with 187 cards left and 11 copies of Six (6) (5.88% vs 7.69%), directly shifting the Banker 5 four-value draw threshold against 4..7.

[DEP178-B] With Six (6) valued at 6 mod 10, its removal moves Player fifth-card draw entry by 27 bps and Banker pat rate by -14 bps; yet inside cell (B=5, P3=5), Banker deterministically draws a sixth card.

Depletion Matrix for DEP178 (Six (6) at 229/416 Cards)
DEP178 MetricDEP178 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP178 At 229 DealtDEP178 Tableau Effect
[DEP178:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)187 Left (55% Dealt)Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt)
[DEP178:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)11/187 (5.88%)Point Value 6
[DEP178:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP 27 bps / B -14 bpsB5 Draw 4-7 Gate
[DEP178:Hand]P=3 vs B=5, P3=5P=8 vs B=36c (P)
  • [DEP178-1] Verify [DEP178] 187 unseen cards remain after 229/416 exit.
  • [DEP178-2] Compare [DEP178] Six (6) density (11/187=5.88%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP178-3] Apply [DEP178] BANKER_TABLEAU[5][5]=true (6c P).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP178

Why DEP178 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP178-C9] Auditioning [DEP178] at depth, Player opens 3 + 5 -> 8 while Banker opens 5 -> 3 across 6c (P in [DEP178]). Across [DEP178] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging P onto [DEP178] BBPPBPBPPP updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Six (6) is depleted to 11/187 in DEP178, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[5][5] remains true at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 229/416 cards in DEP178 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
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Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
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