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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP293] · 25% DEPTH

Nine (9) Depletion at 104/416 Cards (25%): P0-5 vs B-Stand Impact #293

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP293, 104 of 416 cards (25%) have exited the shoe, leaving 22 copies of Nine (9) among 312 unseen cards (7.05% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting P0-5 vs B-Stand frequency by 29 bps.

DEP293 Shoe Depth
104/416 (25%)
DEP293 9 Density
22/312 (7.05%)
DEP293 Draw Delta
29 bps
DEP293 Tableau Gate
B2vP0:DRAW
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P P B B P B B B P P P B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = = ≠
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ =

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 25% shoe-penetration state DEP293 (Nine (9) -> 22/312).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

Column 2 has 3 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 3 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #3

This bead is at Row 4. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, more than one row above → red (=).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 4, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, more than one row above → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 3 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 3 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP293 Penetration Depth
104 Dealt / 312 Remaining (25%)

Evaluated at Early-Shoe Quarter Marker (2 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP293 Rank 9 Supply
22 of 32 Remaining (7.05%)

Compares depleted density 7.05% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Nine (9).

DEP293 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw 29 bps / B-Stand -39 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP293 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[2][0] = true

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (2, 0) but never alters the fixed DRAW rule.

DEP293 Sample Coup Resolution
P(2+2)+10=4 vs B(8+4)=5 (B)

Verified 6-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP293.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP293

How Removing Nine (9) at 104 Cards Affects P0-5 vs B-Stand (DEP293)

Penetration profile [DEP293] fixes the shoe at 104 dealt and 312 remaining with 22 Nine (9) cards (7.05% density vs 7.69%), testing sensitivity of the Player 0..5 fifth-card draw rate versus Banker 6..7 stand rate.

[DEP293-B] Depleting Nine (9) (pip value 9) induces a 29-bps shift in Player 0..5 draws and a -39-bps shift in Banker stands; inside coordinate B2-P3(0), the dealer still draws a sixth card.

Depletion Matrix for DEP293 (Nine (9) at 104/416 Cards)
DEP293 MetricDEP293 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP293 At 104 DealtDEP293 Tableau Effect
[DEP293:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)312 Left (25% Dealt)Early-Shoe Quarter Marker (2 decks dealt)
[DEP293:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)22/312 (7.05%)Point Value 9
[DEP293:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP 29 bps / B -39 bpsP0-5 vs B-Stand
[DEP293:Hand]P=4 vs B=2, P3=0P=4 vs B=56c (B)
  • [DEP293-1] Verify [DEP293] 312 unseen cards remain after 104/416 exit.
  • [DEP293-2] Compare [DEP293] Nine (9) density (22/312=7.05%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP293-3] Apply [DEP293] BANKER_TABLEAU[2][0]=true (6c B).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP293

Why DEP293 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP293-C8] Auditioning [DEP293] at depth, Player opens 4 + 0 -> 4 while Banker opens 2 -> 5 across 6c (B in [DEP293]). Across [DEP293] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging B onto [DEP293] PPBBBPPPPB updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Nine (9) is depleted to 22/312 in DEP293, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[2][0] remains true at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 104/416 cards in DEP293 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
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Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
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