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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP186] · 70% DEPTH

King (K) Depletion at 291/416 Cards (70%): B5 Draw 4-7 Gate Impact #186

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP186, 291 of 416 cards (70%) have exited the shoe, leaving 7 copies of King (K) among 125 unseen cards (5.60% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting B5 Draw 4-7 Gate frequency by -39 bps.

DEP186 Shoe Depth
291/416 (70%)
DEP186 K Density
7/125 (5.60%)
DEP186 Draw Delta
-39 bps
DEP186 Tableau Gate
B5vP5:DRAW
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B B P B B B P P P B B B B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 70% shoe-penetration state DEP186 (King (K) -> 7/125).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 2, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Small Road Mark #3

This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 3.
  2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 3 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP186 Penetration Depth
291 Dealt / 125 Remaining (70%)

Evaluated at Deep-Shoe Segment (5.6 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP186 Rank K Supply
7 of 32 Remaining (5.60%)

Compares depleted density 5.60% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for King (K).

DEP186 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -39 bps / B-Stand 27 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP186 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[5][5] = true

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (5, 5) but never alters the fixed DRAW rule.

DEP186 Sample Coup Resolution
P(A+4)+5=0 vs B(2+3)=5 (B)

Verified 6-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP186.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP186

How Removing King (K) at 291 Cards Affects B5 Draw 4-7 Gate (DEP186)

Conditional model [DEP186] evaluates Deep-Shoe Segment (5.6 decks dealt) where 7 copies of King (K) persist among 125 cards (5.60% vs 416-card 7.69%), recalibrating the Banker 5 four-value draw threshold against 4..7.

[DEP186-B] Mathematically, King (K) (worth 0) shifts Player draw frequency by -39 bps and Banker stand frequency by 27 bps in [DEP186], whereas fixed rule BANKER_TABLEAU[5][5] draws a sixth card.

Depletion Matrix for DEP186 (King (K) at 291/416 Cards)
DEP186 MetricDEP186 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP186 At 291 DealtDEP186 Tableau Effect
[DEP186:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)125 Left (70% Dealt)Deep-Shoe Segment (5.6 decks dealt)
[DEP186:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)7/125 (5.60%)Point Value 0
[DEP186:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -39 bps / B 27 bpsB5 Draw 4-7 Gate
[DEP186:Hand]P=5 vs B=5, P3=5P=0 vs B=56c (B)
  • [DEP186-1] Verify [DEP186] 125 unseen cards remain after 291/416 exit.
  • [DEP186-2] Compare [DEP186] King (K) density (7/125=5.60%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP186-3] Apply [DEP186] BANKER_TABLEAU[5][5]=true (6c B).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP186

Why DEP186 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP186-C0] Auditioning [DEP186] at depth, Player opens 5 + 5 -> 0 while Banker opens 5 -> 5 across 6c (B in [DEP186]). Across [DEP186] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging B onto [DEP186] BBPPBPBBPB updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen King (K) is depleted to 7/125 in DEP186, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[5][5] remains true at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 291/416 cards in DEP186 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
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