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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP074] · 25% DEPTH

King (K) Depletion at 104/416 Cards (25%): B4 Draw 2-7 Gate Impact #74

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP074, 104 of 416 cards (25%) have exited the shoe, leaving 21 copies of King (K) among 312 unseen cards (6.73% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting B4 Draw 2-7 Gate frequency by -44 bps.

DEP074 Shoe Depth
104/416 (25%)
DEP074 K Density
21/312 (6.73%)
DEP074 Draw Delta
-44 bps
DEP074 Tableau Gate
B4vP3:DRAW
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B B P B B B P P P B B B B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 25% shoe-penetration state DEP074 (King (K) -> 21/312).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 2, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Small Road Mark #3

This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 3.
  2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 3 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP074 Penetration Depth
104 Dealt / 312 Remaining (25%)

Evaluated at Early-Shoe Quarter Marker (2 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP074 Rank K Supply
21 of 32 Remaining (6.73%)

Compares depleted density 6.73% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for King (K).

DEP074 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -44 bps / B-Stand 32 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP074 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[4][3] = true

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (4, 3) but never alters the fixed DRAW rule.

DEP074 Sample Coup Resolution
P(7+4)+3=4 vs B(2+2)=1 (P)

Verified 6-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP074.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP074

How Removing King (K) at 104 Cards Affects B4 Draw 2-7 Gate (DEP074)

Conditional model [DEP074] evaluates Early-Shoe Quarter Marker (2 decks dealt) where 21 copies of King (K) persist among 312 cards (6.73% vs 416-card 7.69%), recalibrating the Banker 4 active six-card draw window against 2..7.

[DEP074-B] Mathematically, King (K) (worth 0) shifts Player draw frequency by -44 bps and Banker stand frequency by 32 bps in [DEP074], whereas fixed rule BANKER_TABLEAU[4][3] draws a sixth card.

Depletion Matrix for DEP074 (King (K) at 104/416 Cards)
DEP074 MetricDEP074 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP074 At 104 DealtDEP074 Tableau Effect
[DEP074:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)312 Left (25% Dealt)Early-Shoe Quarter Marker (2 decks dealt)
[DEP074:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)21/312 (6.73%)Point Value 0
[DEP074:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -44 bps / B 32 bpsB4 Draw 2-7 Gate
[DEP074:Hand]P=1 vs B=4, P3=3P=4 vs B=16c (P)
  • [DEP074-1] Verify [DEP074] 312 unseen cards remain after 104/416 exit.
  • [DEP074-2] Compare [DEP074] King (K) density (21/312=6.73%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP074-3] Apply [DEP074] BANKER_TABLEAU[4][3]=true (6c P).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP074

Why DEP074 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP074-C9] Auditioning [DEP074] at depth, Player opens 1 + 3 -> 4 while Banker opens 4 -> 1 across 6c (P in [DEP074]). Across [DEP074] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging P onto [DEP074] BBPPBPBBPB updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen King (K) is depleted to 21/312 in DEP074, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[4][3] remains true at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 104/416 cards in DEP074 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
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