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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP044] · 70% DEPTH

Jack (J) Depletion at 291/416 Cards (70%): B3 vs P3=8 Shade Impact #44

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP044, 291 of 416 cards (70%) have exited the shoe, leaving 5 copies of Jack (J) among 125 unseen cards (4.00% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting B3 vs P3=8 Shade frequency by -32 bps.

DEP044 Shoe Depth
291/416 (70%)
DEP044 J Density
5/125 (4.00%)
DEP044 Draw Delta
-32 bps
DEP044 Tableau Gate
B3vP8:STAND
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B B P P B P P P B B B P B B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ =
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 70% shoe-penetration state DEP044 (Jack (J) -> 5/125).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 2, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Small Road Mark #3

This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 3.
  2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 3 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP044 Penetration Depth
291 Dealt / 125 Remaining (70%)

Evaluated at Deep-Shoe Segment (5.6 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP044 Rank J Supply
5 of 32 Remaining (4.00%)

Compares depleted density 4.00% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Jack (J).

DEP044 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -32 bps / B-Stand 21 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP044 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[3][8] = false

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (3, 8) but never alters the fixed STAND rule.

DEP044 Sample Coup Resolution
P(7+4)+8=9 vs B(10+3)=3 (P)

Verified 5-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP044.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP044

How Removing Jack (J) at 291 Cards Affects B3 vs P3=8 Shade (DEP044)

At penetration mark [DEP044] (291 dealt, 125 undealt), Jack (J) weight is 5/125 (4.00% vs 7.69%), adjusting fifth-card entry into the Banker 3 standing exception on Player third-card 8.

[DEP044-B] Under [DEP044], Jack (J) (0 pts) scarcity recalibrates Player draw entry (-32 bps) and Banker stand frequency (21 bps), while `bankerShouldDraw(3, 8)` stands pat on five cards.

Depletion Matrix for DEP044 (Jack (J) at 291/416 Cards)
DEP044 MetricDEP044 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP044 At 291 DealtDEP044 Tableau Effect
[DEP044:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)125 Left (70% Dealt)Deep-Shoe Segment (5.6 decks dealt)
[DEP044:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)5/125 (4.00%)Point Value 0
[DEP044:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -32 bps / B 21 bpsB3 vs P3=8 Shade
[DEP044:Hand]P=1 vs B=3, P3=8P=9 vs B=35c (P)
  • [DEP044-1] Verify [DEP044] 125 unseen cards remain after 291/416 exit.
  • [DEP044-2] Compare [DEP044] Jack (J) density (5/125=4.00%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP044-3] Apply [DEP044] BANKER_TABLEAU[3][8]=false (5c P).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP044

Why DEP044 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP044-C7] Auditioning [DEP044] at depth, Player opens 1 + 8 -> 9 while Banker opens 3 -> 3 across 5c (P in [DEP044]). Across [DEP044] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging P onto [DEP044] BBPPBPBBPP updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Jack (J) is depleted to 5/125 in DEP044, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[3][8] remains false at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 291/416 cards in DEP044 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
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Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
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